[00:00:01] Speaker A: Welcome to Crypto Talk Radio, the podcast for everyday investors like you. Visit us on the
[email protected] and now here's your host, Leister.
[00:00:13] Speaker B: Thank you for that, Bailey. And welcome everybody out there in Crypto Talk radio
[email protected] a long road ahead and a game I need to get back to. Thank you for joining me here.
We'll be digging into a couple news bits today.
It won't take too long. Today's episode will be reasonably short. There is a lot going on but it's all around the same high level topics. And then I do have a 101 and I want to make sure I cover the 101C. I stumbled across something on Bleez's channel and you know I won't spend too much on the comment but it got me thinking that maybe people don't know. So it was a good opportunity to share the topic and kind of elaborate.
Personal, quick personal. So I cut down two terrible trees in the front of my house. Terrible. Cut those down. I'm going to be planting new trees in the front and I think it's going to look amazing. And this place that I'm getting them from, if the trees turn out really good I might get some more trees to build a natural wall for my, my yard. I haven't decided to go full scope yet but I'm, I'm really leaning that direction as opposed to a hard wall.
So there's a lot going on is the point. Contractors and I got veneer put up now. New downspout to replace that. These trees out the stumps out and then I'm going to be staining the front brick and it's good. I think it's really good. When it's all done I gotta, I got some time to go through that.
So cryptocurrency is not on my mind because I have my ETFs and they make just as it's a 42 return. Like it's crazy.
If you're not an ETFs you really should be. It's my, my, my recommendation for you.
But I know some of you are all about holding the actual crypto itself. You listen to DaVinci, Jeremy. I get it. Nothing I can do about that one. We'll talk about it. It's fine.
CoinDesk.com and we are going to zoom out to the month chart. We're going to go ahead and start with BNB which crapped the down to roughly about 750 bucks recently had a major run before and I was Talking about how BNB's price, it was just killing all time high after all time high after all time high. And this is a lesson for folks that it can't last in this case. BNB's crash was more about bitcoin's crash. And I say crash and I put that in quotes because it didn't go that far down.
But bitcoin did go back down and we're still hovering in that, you know, 100,000, 120,000 mark that's been hovering through for the longest time that people don't see. And I said I felt like bitcoin's price was overinflated.
I felt like it was artificial. I felt like Ethereum should be the measure by which, whether we're really going up or not. But bitcoin, a low over the past 24 hours, I should say a low of just shy of 113,000 bucks, a high of 115,000 bucks. Currently around 114 and again, still can't seem to break out of the 120,000 mark in the middle. And we expect it to go up. But right now it's kind of in this middle stage.
Ethereum, my favorite, a low of 3,500ish, a high of just shy of 3,700ish, currently about 3,600ish mark. And it's got a middle trend as well. But then bitcoin or binance, rather than just a major drop, because just over the past, just to put in perspective what we're talking about here, Binance was over like 800 bucks not that long ago. I think it was like $820 down to just about 750 bucks. I mean it's amazing the percentage of drop given a slight drop on the bitcoin side. And that was mostly liquidations.
So Ethereum is still the key. Ethereum is still the measure as to whether we are or are not going up. And I suspect there's going to be more run up. I saw by the da Vinci, Jeremy, he did a video recently and he's. Something's wrong with him. But he, he basically was just saying, just buy bitcoin, just buy bitcoin, just buy bitcoin.
I'm not going to tell you not to buy bitcoin, but like, geez, there's so many people. There was somebody talking like 100 million per Bitcoin. Like, geez, the, the level of pressure and hype and messaging is so bizarre. I get it. But it's like, geez.
So if you do want to get into those, I'm not going to say they're bad investments because they never are. But something to be thinking about. You know what they are talking about is that bitcoin is going to be the measure for the future. I say it's Ethereum. Time will tell.
Separate news Coinbase's base had an outage. It was a very brief outage, only 30 minutes ish. That happened today.
It's been resolved. It didn't happen. It didn't take a very long time. It's their second outage of sorts of.
But the base layer 2 blockchain still remains one of the top blockchains that's out there. And unfortunately the government's gonna look at that and favor it even though it's, you know, subject to censorship and a bunch of garbage. So I'm not gonna recommend you get into it. But some might do so separately.
The the news outlets are telling you to focus on cryptocurrency and ignore gold.
Here's my gut I've always said diverse portfolio. To me, a diverse portfolio includes gold, whether that's a gold ETF or gold itself.
Because regardless of what, like crypto's volatility is still sky high. Gold's volatility is not.
So if you do a diverse portfolio, gold is still the strongest foundational asset you can have versus volatile assets. I'm never going to recommend a volatile asset as your foundation or as part of that.
I'm gonna tell you have stable assets in your portfolio because it helps insulate against the volatility we know is coming. Some people say bitcoin might go down as far as 50,000 bucks.
I don't know if it's that extreme, but it wouldn't surprise me. And so that I'm still going to recommend, regardless of whether it does or not, have stable assets in your portfolio. And gold is one of those. Silver is one of those.
A palladium, platinum. These are all reasonably more stable than cryptocurrency. I'm not saying one over the other. I'm saying as part of a diverse portfolio, certainly consider rare metals, whether you do the ETFs or the straight metals. I own some of the straight metals because I think they're strong assets to have. Plus I like to. I'm a collector. You know, some of these are collectibles and so I'm collecting them. But there's that gold intrinsic value that cannot be understated. It's going to last long after I'm passed away. That's kind of my thought on the process. But some of these institutionals, you might be curious, well what are they doing? And try to model that. And it turns out that a lot of the institutionals are turning away from rare metals as part of investment instruments for their portfolio.
You might think that's kind of weird. I want to explain the thought process of this.
I talked about on an older episode around the difference in investing in cryptocurrency versus mainline assets, including rare earth metals.
And that with cryptocurrency there's because there's less oversight, less rigor, less scrutiny. It's kind of isolated from oversight. You're kind of, that's, you know, it's gonna, they're gonna look at that and say, okay, yeah, we could.
Right.
So rare metals, in this case, there are laws for institutions where they're not allowed or not they're not allowed, but they are.
There's a disincentive for them to hold rare metals on the books over a certain amount because if they were to do so, it affects how the investments are treated and how they're perceived.
And it causes extra scrutiny, unnecessary scrutiny on those businesses if they hold rare metals. And that does not apply with the cryptocurrencies.
So this goes back decades. But bottom line is that if your company.
And if you have gold, I'm targeting gold. If you have gold on the books, but you don't actually, you're not actually conducting active business around gold, it turns into a certain type of investment and then there's financial scrutiny and it's, they're trying to avoid that smoke, bottom line.
So what I'm getting at is that rare metals, in my opinion, because of the fact that they can't hold significant amounts of it, but they can hold significant amounts of cryptocurrency, I believe cryptocurrency is going to be subject to significant volatility over time and gold is going to be insulated from it over time.
Because I think in, in my opinion the law is designed to protect rare metal assets for non business reasons, whereas cryptocurrency, I think a lot of the scrutiny is going to start. They're going to try to oversee it like the banking system. Right. And so at some point that shift's probably going to go back the other direction, which might cause a surge on the rare metal side. I can't say for sure that it will, but it wouldn't surprise me if it did.
I'm still saying as part of a diverse Portfolio. I strongly recommend that you have rare metals somewhere, whether it's direct or etf.
President Donald Trump recently talked about, or at least was theorized to be talking about doing an executive order to punish banks that block crypto companies. I talked about this a while ago with the debit cards and the fact that some banks were actually prohibiting transactions involving buying cryptocurrencies. This is about buying. So you want to swipe your card and buy cryptocurrency on your debit card.
And some of these banks, I think Chase was one of them, some of these banks were actually declining the charge because they were. They didn't want cryptocurrency charges because they didn't want the risk aspect of it. So this executive order, if it were to pass, is to block those financial institutions from being able to block your transaction in the way you use your debit card. I think it's good.
Unfortunately, it's not going to do any good in the long run because all the. All they'll do is just say, okay, well, we'll just close your account then. Right? So it wouldn't be blocking you. They just close your account for some spurious reason.
I'm not trying to tinfoil you. I'm saying that the banks don't want the cryptocurrency business going on and they're trying to lock it down. That's what they're trying to do. They don't want increased use of it. What I would like to see, instead of something like this, rather than something stopping them from blocking cryptocurrency, what I'd rather see is, let's get rid of the stupid KYC. If it's less than $10,000, let's get rid of that. It's stupid. You don't need to scan your id. You don't need to have a mobile phone. You swipe the thing, you do the thing. Okay. What I'd like to see is that it's distributed through banks itself and force the bank to be able to offer cryptocurrency to its customers. I'm talking to physical presence banks. Right. I should walk into the bank and buy the crypto. Okay, so if you do that and you require them to carry it and make it available just like you do with cash, I think you get more adoption, more widespread adoption than something like this. I'm not saying I'm against it. I just. I don't. Not a fan of it. Compared to trying to encourage adoption, rather than some sort of restriction that they're just going to find loopholes around it.
Personal opinion that I have, that's just me. Maybe I'm in a vacuum. That's fine.
Let's go ahead and dig into our 101 told you be a short episode.
So I was looking on, like I said, Bleeze's channel the other day, and there was a commenter user, Steely, who said, quote, the clickbait clown never stops and he's never right.
And part of it got me thinking, you know, this is a great opportunity to speak to the reason the click the flaw of technical analysis, because that's what bleeds does a lot of.
And it's not specific to him. It's just in general, technical analysis itself is flawed. It's a flawed science. And I thought I would share my thoughts on why I feel it's a flawed science. So in order to understand where I'm coming from with it, we have to kind of break down all the components that go into price movement.
And this is coming from my lens. Somebody else may emphatically disagree. And that is perfectly fine for them to do that. Hopefully you know by now, and maybe you don't. It's okay. Hopefully. You know, the main thing that causes a chart to move has to do with a couple of factors, but there's one primary one I want to talk about, and that's total value locked.
Circulation of supply matters, but not as much as total value locked.
And as a byproduct, total value locked, we have to talk about liquidity.
As a byproduct of liquidity, we have to talk about pairs. I don't want to dig too deep because I don't want to waste your time.
Suffice to say, when you talk liquidity, pairs, there are two sides. It's a pair, right? So there's two sides.
We expect a balance in the liquidity pool. There have to be enough of both assets. The pool.
When there's an imbalance in the pool, it causes price disruption. The price does not sustain.
So let's take an example.
Let's take, I don't know, garbage coin, slash usdt. Right? That's our pair. And garbage coin just launched. Somebody shielded all over social media.
They paid. Believes he talked about it.
They paid Adam Captain. He talked about it. They paid all these shillers. They talked about it.
So garbage coin launches USDT paired.
Let's say it's an ethereum token. So it's on a uniswap. Usually it's V3 by now.
It launches and it has the unreasonable climb. Okay.
And then the crap that always happens with garbage token shield.
Now there's a couple of things. Liquidity, amount matters compared to the market cap. And I talked about this with Hachi in your pair, let's say that people are buying, right? Like crazy. And so you expect more of the USDT in the pool.
And at some point there's going to be less of the garbage coin. So it creates a constraint.
When it creates a constraint, you start to see when, when you're on, let's say Uniswap, you start to see that it'll say price impact.
Price impact is basically telling you, and it depends on what happened. It depends on which side of that pool is low.
What it's saying is the price is going to shift if I do this transaction you're asking, it's going to need to impact the price.
The way that these services operate is they're offering a price that is designed to entice whatever it takes to rebalance the pool.
So again, let's say people are buying and buying like crazy. Okay, so then the garbage coin gets low. Okay, so the pool's getting low, the price goes up. Because what it's trying to do is encourage cells. It wants people to sell because it needs more garbage coin because there's people that want it. There's demand that it sees this by fact that there's no garbage coin in the pool.
So it hits that peak and then it starts to crap. And so now you're getting more garbage coin in the pool and less usdt. And so then what should happen? And this is the flaw of many of these tokens.
When the USDT gets low and there's a significant amount of the garbage coin, the price is usually going to crap out. It's going to bottom out because it's trying to encourage more buys because now it's saying we got to get this garbage coin out of here.
Well, what happens if nobody buys Part of the. This goes to the other part. Flaw of the technical analysis.
All these calculations you might have heard right, rsi, macd, Bollingers and all these, they make strong assumptions, mathematical assumptions about where a chart's going to go, but it needs enough data to be accurate. So if something just launched, that analysis is worthless. It's not going to do any good because there's not enough data in order to properly accurately predict what's going to happen.
So pre sales know that, pre sales know that there's no way you can really estimate what's going to happen. So the dev can just basically Take your money and make a dash. Right.
Let's say that garbage coin does the pump and dump and then it starts to recover a little bit and it starts to go in this wave and it goes for a while because you know, a bunch of shillers are talking about it enough to get people to keep, keep doing it. Right.
If there's enough time, you'll start to get enough data to do technical analysis. Sure.
And you'll see people start drawing lines on a chart and it's saying, yep, this is a, you know, descending wedge and a flag and all these patterns because the pattern makes the assumption that the pattern should continue because it's a pattern. Right.
Well, the one thing that many of these technical analyses get or miss, I shouldn't get, say, get wrong. I was about to say get wrong. It's what they miss because they can't assess it is sentiment.
Sentiment is the most important, in my opinion criteria to true analysis.
How would you apply sentiment in this case?
Going back to my liquidity example of the garbage coin and USDT and the assumption of buys and sells.
Sentiment is something has to encourage somebody to buy other than a low price.
Sentiment is, we assume people are going to sell on the way up and we assume that people are going to buy because they believe it's a strong asset.
All of these assumptions are volume driven.
Well, what happens if the assumptions are wrong? Project's gonna crap like Seifu.
So the flaw of using straight line technical analysis without considering sentiment is it makes assumptions that cannot be sustained if the project does not have anything strong enough to support it.
So you can apply all the technical analysis to. I see people doing like I'll see Blease, he does technical analysis on blocky and all these garbage tokens like it doesn't work. You might get some temporary wins but in the long run it doesn't work. Just like with Monkey she in you, you're assuming that the dev's not going to just quit.
There's too many assumptions that are sentiment based that the technical cannot take into consideration. So a lot of the YouTubers will say, you know, I'm, I don't know for sure, but this is what I look like, what it looks like they're covering their ass and I celebrate they're doing that.
But I wanted to make sure you understood technical analysis is one dimension to look at and it's not the only, it's only one dimension mentioned. You have to look at sentiment if it's a garbage token, if it's straight up garbage and you know, it's garbage if it's being hyped on social media, right? If it doesn't have a product, if it's just about memes, it's. These are things where the sentiment is. And I'm. By sentiment, I don't mean hype, I mean sentiment. They're not the same thing. Height is simply something artificial designed to get an outcome. Sentiment is a long term sensation from an audience that is organically grown. It is something where you just have a sense of it and there's a strong enough sense because of what they're doing to try to encourage people to get into the project.
Something like a. Debbie, what is the sentiment? The sentiment is that these guys are scammers because it's been going on for so long and they have not show for it. Block that. What's the sentiment? That these guys are scammers, they're astronauts and shit. Right?
Sentiment is the most critical thing that nobody pays enough attention to because it's not something you can predict, it's not something you could throw math at, it's not something you're going to get perfect.
But it's easy to sense when it's not there. That's the key. When it's not there, it's easy to know that it's not there. Which is how I can say, and I'm. I'm pretty good on the track record, by the way. I can say I just saw Bliss cover that it's going to crap.
Not because of him, but because I can see there's literally nothing to it.
Nothing. Sentiment wise. There's nothing there. It's not about hype, it's sentiment. Terrarium, right? I saw nothing there.
And when they put on their site that, hey, we can rip you off in the liquidity, it's like, no, there's nothing here. This is not worth it.
You will at some point master the art of sentiment based analysis.
But if you're a gambler rolling the dice, it's not going to matter to you. If you're like me and you're just watching for certain opportunities to buy and sell sentiment, you learn how to look for it, how to smell it a mile away and then you learn how to take action based on it, whatever that action is.
It's simply just, you can't go off those lines. The lines will get it right most of the time if it's an established something like Ethereum.
But if you're talking garbage that you're going after mean garbage, they're not built around Those analyses, they're not built to use that logic, as you might expect. You can try, but it's not necessarily assumed that it's going to work.
What am I getting at?
I'm suggesting, and it's up to you.
The next time you're on YouTube and you're watching somebody draw a bunch of lines and making crosses and flags and all sorts of other stuff, feel free to watch what they're doing and see that occasionally they do get it right.
But understand that there are going to be times they get it wrong. And why? It's because they're ignoring the sentiment piece.
The sentiment piece to me is the critical piece that they refuse to cover. But I think it's the most important part of the whole thing. Without it, you're always missing key opportunities to buy and sell. And that's just the way it is.
It's not straightforward math like you would see. Even on the stock market and bond side, it's the same thing. Sentiment is still a criteria there too.
Some people choose to ignore it, I don't. That's how I roll.
In closing, and in summary, we have an expectation of positive movement.
But we've just now seen that even despite Donald Trump's fervent efforts to push cryptocurrency to the moon, none of that happened. We had run ups on Ethereum. It still didn't hit its all time high.
Bitcoin smashed its all time high, but for different reasons than it cracked back down.
We know the potential is there, we know the demands there, we know the long game is there. And that's the important takeaway. It's a long game, we're not in the short game. It might seem like it for these short pumps, but anybody paying attention would have known there's no way we're hitting these high numbers yet.
End of the year, strongly probable, but not guaranteed, especially if we don't get a Fed cut. I think that's a key thing for cryptocurrency is to get a cut, in my opinion. And we haven't gotten it yet, so we have to see what that looks like.
Always, always insulate yourself from this disruption. Invest only what you can afford to lose, for sure.
But most importantly, diversify. Get a bunch of different things because different things are moving.
Not everything's going up, not everything's going down, different things are moving. And the worst thing you could do is diversify your portfolio. So worst way to win is diversify, because win doesn't mean become a millionaire, win means you don't lose.
Once you flip your thinking, you realize just how interesting and how easy this is.
You gotta flip it around. Okay? Your job is to make sure you don't lose.
Some people are gamblers and I get it.
But most you're logical people. You're gonna listen to lifestyle and you're gonna say, he's got a point.
Let me start diversifying the portfolio and if you're interested in doing that again. I can't recommend gold enough. I do recommend everybody hold some of that in part in your diverse portfolio.
Not the only thing. Don't yolo on anything but just as part of a diverse portfolio. You can't go wrong with it. I love it. I think it's great and I think it's going to get to a world where if you get it now, you're going to learn to appreciate it in the long run.
Sam.
