#Bitcoin Run Up Stalled By Vanguard’s #BitcoinETF Blocking

January 12, 2024 00:30:37
#Bitcoin Run Up Stalled By Vanguard’s #BitcoinETF Blocking
Crypto Talk Radio: Basic Cryptonomics
#Bitcoin Run Up Stalled By Vanguard’s #BitcoinETF Blocking

Jan 12 2024 | 00:30:37

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Episode Transcript

[00:00:01] Welcome to Crypto Talk radio, the podcast for everyday investors like you. Visit us on the [email protected]. And now here's your host, Leister. Thank you for that, Bailey. And welcome everybody out there in Crypto Talk Radio [email protected] a very good evening or afternoon, depending on what time zone you're in. Crypto talk radio found at Crypto Talk radio deer.net is back on the air with some follow on. We are in the middle of a run. Some stuff happened though. Some shady business happened and I felt like I wanted to talk about some of it and I don't want to spend too much time on it, but I do want to give a little bit of energy a quick personal update that's really side. It's somewhat related, but not directly related. So on the financial end, as of 2024, all of the money that I make from my endeavor should be routing to my business. We have a business set up and the whole nine and the money should be routing there. I got notified by the contact. They screwed the pooch. And so then the next payment is going to my personal account. It's not a big deal. It's more semantics. I wanted to make sure because under law, technically, he'd have to issue me a 1099 to be on the up and up. I think it's because of commingling of funds and all that. That's why it's kind of a problem. I'm going to keep his notification on file just so that it's covered, but it doesn't affect you. I'm talking about on the financial aspects of how this all shift is working and the timing, trying to align it and my frustration with various vendors and providers who seem to not be able to do their job right. And it doesn't seem to end. I'm surrounded by it, whether it's the place I'm physically living, different vendors out and about the supermarket, which was a nightmare, by the way, I'll tell you in a second. My vendor on the payment side, just everything. The bank down the way is the only one that seemed to have had their stuff in the line. And even they have some weirdness with the way the account works. They have low deposit limits. [00:02:12] Supermarket right. So I think I told the story. I may not have, I'm not sure, but I went back to the supermarket and I got my burrito. My burrito baby show look good to me. Got my burritos. So they were in the freaking and they have a section that's titled. They have two sections titled burritos, which makes no damn sense. But point is, I got my burritos. They're in the freezer. Had one. It was amazing. [00:02:38] I have to kind of toy with the prep to get the right moisture of the burrito. It's a green chili, if you're curious. I got toy with that. But other than that, it tasted great. [00:02:48] As a side, I use buttery theater salt on almost everything that I eat. And it's sea salt based, so you don't have any negative stuff to it. So I do that and the flavor is just like amazing. So I got that. We're good there. I got my bacon. That's always a must have when you're hunkered down just to make sure you have your beer, as I refer. So I got food. So I didn't have to go back. But when I went this time to the supermarket, I was trying to find there's a certain meal prep deal that I get all the time that's part of my diet. And it's either out of stock or it's one of these where it's just not filed, where it's supposed to be. It's always available. If I order delivery, I don't order delivery because I want to pay by cash and there's no such service. So I've got to go down a third time and try to find that, see if I can figure it out. Meanwhile, I was watching the graphs in my wallet just to see impacts, and I was hearing altcoins are running. [00:03:52] Just kind of playing it by ear. I wasn't really impressed by what I saw. And then I did some digging, stumbled across a couple of articles that were talking about what may be happening, and I'm going to talk about this. I may briefly discuss an exchange. I don't want to spend lot of time on exchanges just because we're fresh on this bull. And I want to talk about what's going on and spend some time, and I don't want to go too long on the episode. It's the same. But I do want to make sure that I am doing at least some coverage on an exchange as I committed. So let's dig in and we'll see what we get and how you feel about it. I can't say what your thoughts are going to be. I have mixed feelings myself, so don't feel bad if it's kind of going over your head. [00:04:40] Okie dokie. Did you notice bitcoin going on somewhat of a run and then lose some of that steam. I did. It didn't surprise me, but we got some money and hopefully there was profit opportunity for you and hopefully you took advantage of said profit. And as a sidebar, if you're new to the channel, by the way, welcome. My name is Leister. If you didn't catch that, I like to cover the graphs in the early part of the episode and I use coindesk.com. I zoom out to the month chart because it usually, not always usually gives me an indication of direction velocity where we're going. And I noticed a low of 46, just a little bit under 46,000. High of just over 49,000 for the 24 hours spread currently hovering at 46. So we lost a lot of the gains. It pumped up and then it went back down. Some people attributed this to sell activity. Certainly that was playing a factor. What I said again, this is really to those who are new, is that when you have people in at certain levels, at certain positions for an extended period of time, we had a very lengthy bear period. We knew that there were people sitting at certain positions waiting for this pump so that they could sell and either make profit or just simply get out and say, screw this crypto, I'm done. El Salvador, of course, had bought cryptocurrency when it was down like 12,000, 16,000. Despite all ods, they made a pretty tidy profit for the country. So kudos to them if they were able to make some really good money for the coffers. And there are certainly others that would have stacked when it was down to $12,000. And trust me, it would have been a brilliant gimme to buy at $12,000 if you had the money. Just think about it. If you had enough money to buy ten of them. So 120 grand, right? Because when it was low, it's twelve. So $120,000. [00:06:33] At this point, we're getting very dangerously close, very dangerously close to the forex. And it at one point did hit that I'm talking stably a forex from where that is half a million dollars, simply because you went all in on something that was pretty much a sure bet. We knew bitcoin was going to go back up. We just didn't know when. And there is going to be some millionaires minted this round. It's almost a given. And so if you were able to make some profit off of any of the tokens that you trade, kudos. And I celebrate, and that's a great thing to hear. And I know some people might have been in a tough spot or nervous or not sure about where we were going. Organizational overall, if we were going to go back up or if it was done, it was toast. And I kept saying, and this is really for those that are new, but I kept saying it's cyclical. It goes in these cycles, roughly every three years ish, it goes in these cycles. And so certain of the people that have been in cryptocurrency for a while already knew what to expect, as in this was bound to happen. We were going to have these situations where it was going to go down and then go up and go down and go up. And patience is the strongest trait one can have when dealing with cryptocurrency. For myself, I happen to get in right, I would argue at the apex of the last run, so then I can now watch the crap down. And I've seen different tokens come and go failed during the bear as I predicted they would [email protected]. I knew they wouldn't last, they wouldn't sustain. There was no way they were going to. Now, during the bear, I see other projects spin up. Some of them go on a run, like bonk or Pepe or something else, and some of them don't. They fizzle out and they die. Well, now, in this new run that is upon us, we're seeing more tokens spin up on alt chains. There's a lot more tokens on Solana in particular than there ever has been. They know what they're doing. Solana itself is going to go on a major run. I'm talking the core coin, the gas coin. It's going to go on a run. Avalanche is going to go on a run. I suspect polygon, the new polygon as well as Matic. Matic's still around, but the new polygon token is going to go on a run. I suspect Phantom is going to go on a run. [00:08:40] I'm so confident on Phantom. I was watching tokens that are pretty much dead. I mean, you can't really get much more dead than them have major price shifts, depending on how much you held of an alt token that was on the phantom chain. So this told me, if Phantom can pull that off on a chain that was having major issues, why can't shabarium do the same? It was simply a matter of time. I can't guarantee that'll happen. I'm saying that it's a strong bet that it does, especially because Shabarium is essentially forked off of polygon, and shabarium has shib has over 2 million holders on just the shib token alone. Just a fraction of that whole bone, a fraction of that whole leash. Well, let's say you just got 25% of those that hold shib to buy into these other ones. It's going to go on a run too. And then once there's enough holders and enough volume increase on these tokens, they're going to get noticed by exchanges. They're going to get listed. Speaking of, Lucy, who is one of the spokespeople for Shibarium, came out and talked know we're not going to pay to get listed on exchanges because the community, the Shib army as it's called, has been asking to get more exchanges, as have I. I have said more exchanges is the logical next step, especially for Bone. And especially if Bone's going to be a gas token. It makes perfect sense to make it easy to acquire, which would naturally cause a price run, significant price run, especially if it was able to get on finance. They came out, said, we are not going to pay for it. However, if the community wants it, you can contact them and lobby to get it listed. I would argue that's not going to do any damn good because we've seen tons of tokens ask and not get listed. Let me not let people forget about lillian finance who tried to do that, and it doesn't work. At the end of the day, there has to be advocacy from the leadership, quote, unquote, of a different token to get on the exchanges. And I would say bone will get on these at some point when they have no choice but to pay attention. The whole paying for getting on it is intriguing, because if that's the case, perhaps that's how bot got on so quick. I don't know for sure, but if it is, then there's an opportunity for these tokens to go on a run as well. If somehow the exchanges decide to list on their own volition. I don't know if they will, but it's something at least to pay attention to in the big picture of a thing. [00:11:05] There was some drama after the pump, and I have been and if you're new, you don't know this, that's why I'm sharing it again. I have been tinfoil about these various disruptive events that seem to be happening at the same time with ironic timing all around the same situation, which is to ultimately suppress and depress the climb of cryptocurrency at just the right time. We see it multiple times. The Blackrock ETF. This is October. It's in the [email protected]. Check it out. Okay. There's these fake pumps around a blackrock ETF. Turned out to be fake views. And so it craps this most recent where the SEC official Twitter account. So a government organization's official Twitter account puts out an announcement saying that they're approving these bitcoin etfs, which causes an unreasonable pump. And then later, Gary Gensler comes out and says that the SEC account got hacked. And so this is not true. We did not approve, and it causes a crap down. Certain people speculate this is strategic, myself included. I call it tinfoil. Regardless, we do get the announcement, but it takes a little while. And then separate from this, pumps are starting to happen. Vanguard very most recently, it was discovered that Vanguard was actually blocking access to buy the bitcoin etfs. There was a lot of pent up demand to buy the bitcoin ETFs, specifically Blackrock's iShares and Grayscale's bitcoin trust. People rushed to try to get this done. They could not get it traded. They got an error saying, quote, trade cannot be completed on the vanguard retirement accounts. Well, this hurt sentiment because they're getting mixed messages. And just to clarify, if you happen to be one of those that was affected by this, simply the approval from the SEC does not necessarily guarantee immediate accessibility to the trading on these various platforms. And you would have to wait for the announcement from the trading platforms because the approval of it doesn't necessarily mean that it's equipped to do it. Now, I know what you're thinking. These idiots want the money. They want the money, so why didn't they get it set up in time? This may surprise you, and I'm going to tinfoil it again. I speculate they did set it up. I speculate that they purposely are suppressing them to drive the price back down so they can make sure to buy in before you buy in, so that they can take profit off of you and treat you like exit liquidity at some point later. I tinfoil that. But I believe that, because think about it, you are correct. When you ask the question, why would they not allow trading day one? We can make all the excuses about the technology is not ready and all this set up and all that. [00:13:46] These are very wealthy, very intelligent people, and we haven't seen something like this, hardly ever. So I am going to tinfall that and say that they are purposely suppressing access to these bitcoin etfs on purpose so that it causes some price depression. Now, that it's approved so they can get in with a little bit more discount before a run. Because you know the term buy the rumor, sell the news, right? Sell the news. Well, what's the news? The news is that I can't buy this damn thing. It's supposed to be approved. I can't buy it. So I dumb. Well, that creates discounts for these rich mfers, mother, fathers who have enough money to pay the full price. But why do that when you can make some profit at the last minute? I tinfall that I put that on me. If I get it right, you come back, give my credit. But I'm saying I am tinfalling that. I'm not speaking for anybody else. [00:14:36] From their official portal, quote, buy orders are not currently accepted for this security. Securities may be unavailable for purchase at Vanguard due to a number of variables, including regulatory restrictions, corporate actions, or various trading and or settlement limitations. Stop. Now, I want to also repeat something I said before that happens on the stock side. [00:14:59] On the stock side, the trading platform can do halts, and it's actually embedded in the rules of the trading that there could be halts. This is why when there's a certain level of volatility, you may not be able to trade a certain type of stock or a certain whatever. They're putting a halt on that because they're trying to get rid of, they don't want volatility. Well, if you think of cryptocurrency, it pretty much thrives on volatility. The volatility is what causes the kind of volume numbers that we see. And because this will come in and it's going to have volatility certainly fresh out the gate. But I would argue over time, I'm not necessarily sold, that you're going to see an immediate jump up to a bitcoin. 60 grand could happen, but I don't think it's going to happen right away. I think it's going to take some time before we start seeing significant benefit from the listing of these. And that's assuming the platforms make it available for you to transact it, which at least for Vanguard's sake, has not happened yet. Now, on the flip side, UBS, which is a banking off the UK as well as Citi, they are going to open up and make available the bitcoin ETF to trade on their platforms. I say that so that you understand that this blockage that you're seeing with Vanguard is not widespread. It's only Vanguard that we know of specifically for us people. But others, as far as banking that have their own trading platforms appear to be perfectly fine to allow those trades. And Schwab has announced that they'll allow it happen. I don't think it's open yet, but they're announcing that they will allow that to happen, as well as fidelity. So I'm saying that's to allay any concerns that it's a widespread issue, and that increases my confidence that it's likely one of those strategic things. Tinfoil. You're like, well, how does it affect it if it's available elsewhere, just not at Vanguard? Because Vanguard knows that they hold a pretty significant share of the larger players, the institutional players, money, access. So they hold the vast majority of what would cause the largest run. So you got to think, if they hold the vast majority of the access to that wealth, they hold the keys to a significant run. So them blocking means we can only run ever so much because the other ones aren't nearly as big. I would argue Blackrock is pretty big. I would argue that Schwab is pretty big. I'm saying that they are not necessarily as widespread as a vanguard would be for these types of instruments. All of this is me just spitballing and tinfoiling what I see happening. Given all points to the contrary, I'm agreeing with you that there's no logical reason for them to do this blockage. I'm saying that it's probably strategic, is my guess. Either that or they're blatant idiots. That's also possible as well. [00:17:50] Let me briefly talk about an exchange, because I want to just get it out of the way more than anything else. Just talk about an exchange. [00:17:58] OKX. [00:18:00] Okx.com okx really pisses me off. They really do. Because of all of the exchanges I've ever looked at, I think they have one of the nicest interfaces. I think they have some of the best tool sets for predictive analytics, for movement of graphs. I am a big fan of the tool. I'm a big fan of the platform. I'm not a fan of them. When you go, and when I say we or you, I'm referring to people in the United States. When I say that when you go to OKX, they will present you with a message that know we can't offer you access to the platform at all. So they don't offer it at all. Even if you want to do KYC, they will not do it. Not United States, Belgium, Cuba, France, Iran, Japan, North Korea, Crimea, Malaysia, Syria, the Bahamas, Canada, the Netherlands, Ireland. If you look at the list, it's basically, with the exception of possibly it's and Crimea, it's basically, and North Korea, it's basically anybody and everybody who's allied with the United States is on this list. And so that's why I say they pissed me off, because the irony is that they are registered in the Bahamas, but they do not allow trading with Bahamas customers, which makes no damn sense. And my theory is that they just refuse to do the administrative overhead necessary with KYC to be able to transact, or they don't want to create technology solutions to limit access to certain tokens that may be considered securities. And they're just taking the conservative approach. I don't like that. I would rather that they take the approach of saying there are certain ones you can transact and certain ones you can't, just like Kraken does, because they can conduct in the US if they choose to. They don't choose to. They do offer a wallet, the OKX wallet, if you want to transact the wallet, and the wallet allows certain transactions, but you still can't access anything that would allow them to connect to the centralized side. And the tool set on the wallet is nowhere near, in my opinion, as powerful as what the actual central exchange offers. So if you are one of those that's in a supported country, or you're one of those that's willing to take the risk of VPN, I think again, highly of the interface. I'm just not a fan of them blocking out access to american folks because they don't have to really do that. They can allow american folks to do the transaction should they choose to. They just need to be able to support basic KYC and then you're fine. But they just absolutely refuse to do it. [00:20:50] I dug a little deeper and they do offer a swap. So there's a basic web three swap that you can connect through wallet connect if you want to get in to do basic swaps, and it doesn't look like they block that, which again makes no damn sense, because at the end of the day, if they're providing access to it through the descend side, it doesn't make any sense that then okay, here you can do it, but on the other side you cannot. [00:21:17] To me, I think it's a bit of smoke, is my point. I think it's a bit of smoke. [00:21:24] I'm going to tinfoil and say that they just are either too damn lazy to fix their tool to where things are supportable for the United States traders, or they're taking the overly conservative approach, because again, you can do it on the regular swap. So what the hell is the difference if it's the same pool of tokens, and I can't say it is, I'm saying if you're tapping into those tokens from the central exchange, then what the hell is the difference that you could open up to us traders? Because I do think again, highly of their tool set. So my summary on OKX's, they really pissed me off. They really pissed me off because of their overly aggressive blocking of access to these tools that I think people should be able to take advantage of. And if you're going to offer a decentralized swap, which is basically a fraction of what you offer on the centralized side, and it happens to access the pool of tokens that you have available, I question the legitimacy of the blocks that you do on the centralized side is my only point. So okX.com, if you want to check that out, I am not a fan and I would never advocate getting into this particular exchange, but there may be people out there that do or want to, and they're willing to do what's necessary to get in. [00:22:44] I'd like to talk about the Shib ecosystem very briefly for wrap up here. And for those in all, full disclosure, allegedly I'm a bone whale. That still continues as it stands. And I've not bought any more. I was tempted when it dropped to really tempted. I was biting my lip on that one. I chose not to. And part of what's going on with the Shib ecosystem is part to play in why I chose not to. And I want to just break down what's happening, because I think it's important to put thoughts to this, the whole ecosystem. They're trying to do something that I don't think it's compatible with what they initially said, but I don't think it's sustainable with the future state. Here's what I mean. Their whole deal is to try to be decentralized. They're trying to maintain decentralized. They're trying to keep everything decentralized and not rely on centralized unless the community pushes for it. [00:23:42] I got it. But I think that you need at this point, it's kind of powder keg. You've got millions and millions of people in the go at some point. There's no reflections. So we know that they're valid wallets. That's a lot of wallets. [00:23:59] You've got to have some sort of impetus for increased awareness of what's all out there outside of Shib. [00:24:08] I think that all the screams of burning Shib have gotten them to the point that they're focusing on burning Shib, but at the same time, they're not willing to do what's necessary for the shivarium overall to succeed. [00:24:22] Because it's not just the trading aspect on the exchanges, it is also the ability to base spot buy it on a central exchange. That's one. The volume numbers are down on Shibaswap, so we know that people may want to buy it, but they're not going to the Dap. The Shiba swap has not been moved to shibarium, so that's not being leveraged to support burn activities. [00:24:48] And if you sell people that bone is necessary for gas, at some point you'll have to figure out how to get people who hold on ethereum off of it and then possibly wormhole back, if you must do that or something else. Point is, you're going to need to get people off of ethereum holdings of boom and later leash. And I don't know that you have a strong plan for doing that. As a result, sentiment is down across the board. I'm not telling you what to do. I'm telling you that if we don't do something, we as in the community don't do something. [00:25:22] I'm not concerned about a crap out. What I am saying is something must be done to move the project forward. And I'm not confident that the people who are at the top understand the true direction that things must go in order to realize the success of a key moment that I think is going to be brief. So in other words, let's say, for example, that this run doesn't last because previous runs didn't last for too long. They lasted, but not too long. You kind of have one moment and if it hits a bear again, I think you're going to lose a lot of people. If you lose a lot of people, you're not going to get them back. There's a lot of other crap coming out now. So if somebody has an inroad to that group of people, I implore you to send this along to them so they can hear some and kind of understand and hopefully change course and rethink what they must do in order for this to be successful. If they don't want to do it, that's on them. But realize if they don't do it, it's going to be a hard road to get back up to the top. And I'm saying this not for the bag specifically. I'm saying this because you have a lot of competition that wasn't there before, that got in at the right time and took some money away from other projects and you don't really have enough to entice them back. You damn sure aren't going to entice them back with a cologne scented book, I'll just tell you that much. And your nfts aren't going to do it either, because the only holdouts at this point are wealthy people. The people who are at the lower level. They already bought it. They're not going to do very much more. [00:27:03] Feel free to disregard me all you care to. I'm telling you what I see, and hopefully this run lasts long enough for the people in charge of this project to get a clue, although I'm not quite optimistic in that regard. [00:27:18] Lastly, the run will have profit opportunities and I encourage you to take those profits and not sit on it. If you're a gambler that wants to sit on it, by all means can't tell you what to do with your money. I'm saying that I would like to make sure people listening to me get to win after such a long bare period. Because you've earned it. You've earned it for the patience that you had to take those profits and put them in the wallet. And then whether you buy back in or you do something nice for your family or your bills or something, condition yourself to be smart about your trading is all I'm asking and you are free to do whatever you're going to do. Also, I have reviewed tradingview.com and it has really nice charts, super trends it's referred to, and if you'd like to get into trading view, it's a paid thing. It is a free 30 day trial. It's a paid thing. But if you'd like to check it out, you can join our discord, cryptotalkradio. Net Discord and I have an affiliate link in there where you could just join, watch it for 30 days, see if it's something that you like and something that you are paying for, you don't have to do it. There are free charts out there, but the other charts don't offer what the super trends offer on trading view and I gave an example, visual examples you can see for yourself. What it does is give you buy and sell signals. So if you're having a hard time predicting the graphs, I think it's a very powerful tool to try to help you, especially now when we're at this run, to be able to identify where those signals are. And then if you can really learn it, you'll be able to find them yourself, and then maybe you don't renew. But again, it's a free 30 day trial. Cost you. Nothing to do that. If you are interested in a more powerful graphing tool than just looking at graphs as I describe them, then that's available. Cryptotalkradio net discord and it is possible I have not confirmed this, but it is possible that I am going to cancel. Not cancel, but basically abandon the Twitter account because there are some shenanigans going on with x that's pissing me off. That's only affecting crypto talk radio. It's not an attack. I know it's not that their developers don't know what the hell they're doing. So I'm debating whether to just abandon the account. It'll still be active, but not actively used outside of publishing our various episodes, podcast episodes, which is an automated process. So I'm still benting that about. So if you see less communication coming out of that Twitter account, that would be why is we're trying to wean away from that focus more on the discord side as we build out our own platform things, and then we'll keep you in the loop as things change and come and go. Don't.

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