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Episode Transcript
[00:00:01] Speaker A: Welcome to Crypto Talk radio, the podcast for everyday investors like you. Visit us on the [email protected]. And now here's your host, lifester.
[00:00:13] Speaker B: Thank you for that, Bailey. And welcome, everybody out there in crypto Talk radio [email protected] are you feeling the burn? Are you feeling the crunch? Are you feeling the cold? It's the cold I feel. It is cold. It's cold outside. It's cold. Cold as I'll get out.
I drove to Wally World the other day. I had to pick up some groceries. Cold, biting cold. Colder than I'd ever experienced. And I once told the story about a place called Snowville. It's in Utah, northern Utah, and there's nothing depending on the time of the year you go. There's nothing out there but snow and a scattering of trees on the freeway. There's no gas station. There's no houses. There's no other buildings during this one little strip.
Now, I have a hybrid, so I have gas, and it takes me like 500 miles to the phillips. So I wasn't concerned necessarily. It's just that I didn't expect there to be nothing out there believes. I was watching his channel, gave an update. He lives in Chicago, and he was talking about all these pissed off Tesla owners whose cars simply didn't want to start or they couldn't get them charged with the speed that Elon Musk promised. And I don't know that people really understood. I've been telling this story on casual talk radio for now over a year that I do not support an EV world. I said we're not ready for it. I said that we should be in the hybrid. Largely. The cars that we're manufacturing should be hybrids, and they should not be suvs. They should be hybrids, sedans. We should not be rushing to EV because our grid can't handle it and we're not ready. But I also said the technology is too new. We're not at the point of it being ubiquitous enough to support it. Many countries have backed off of that push. The US is the only one rushing.
[00:01:56] Speaker C: Forward to that crap, and they're only.
[00:01:58] Speaker B: Doing it to appease the greta tumburgs of the world. Well, when I saw this, I confirmed it on the news outlets that, yes.
[00:02:04] Speaker C: Indeed, these Tesla owners who paid boatloads of cash or extended loans on themselves.
[00:02:09] Speaker B: For these cars, are stranded or can't get their cars charged with the speed that they were promised by Elon Musk.
[00:02:15] Speaker C: And that's because if you didn't know, electric technology, the general just electric technology doesn't really behave well in extreme cold. It works fine up to a point, but once you get past it, they don't behave well in extreme cold. The reason is because everything flows much more efficiently with heat. That's just the way it is. The combustion engine of the traditional gas vehicle is inefficient with its heat. It wastes the vast majority of its heat. That was one of the impetuses behind pushing towards cleaner ways to move the vehicle. I'm supportive of cleaner. I simply said that hybrid is the right answer. Hybrid combines rather a combustion engine, the ice and the electric engine.
[00:03:00] Speaker B: But with an ev, all you have is the electric engine, which means you have to have something that heats it up. Most of the evs don't have sufficient levels of heating to offset the cold because they're not designed to do it with a combustion engine. And I can attest to this because I've driven my hybrids all over the freaking country. At this point, when I start that car, if it's not warm enough, it's going to kick over that combustion engine, which obviously takes gas, but so what? It only runs for as long as it needs to to warm up the blocks. So everything works. I don't have to worry. I don't have to be concerned. I'm not worried about being stranded or none of that crap. Now I have my second car and it's a straight gas vehicle, and I was never worried about it. It's been outdoors, whereas my hybrid is indoors. The point is, I knew that was going to happen, and I don't like to see people get stranded like that. But I wish that society would stop rushing towards electric vehicles. And hopefully this is a lesson learned. Hybrid is where we should be. It's the logical evolution. There's nothing wrong with it. It minimizes our reliance on fossil fuels, keeps you safe. Makes sure you can still start that bad boy when you need to get to work or get home. I'm just saying it was the wrong answer. We knew it was the wrong answer and this exposed it. Now what are they going to do?
[00:04:10] Speaker C: Nothing.
[00:04:11] Speaker B: Your Tesla is going to lose value because of this, because they're going to happen more often. It's going to happen these snow snips. So I'm not wishing ill. Hopefully you're.
[00:04:20] Speaker C: All okay if you have a Tesla.
[00:04:21] Speaker B: And hopefully somebody's checking on crypto journey fudney or whatever, because he's been bragging.
[00:04:26] Speaker C: About his Tesla and riding all the whip.
[00:04:27] Speaker B: But let's get into some crypto.
[00:04:29] Speaker C: Let's talk about some crypto.
[00:04:37] Speaker B: All right, let's spin over to coindesk.com and check some numbers so I can. I'm not intentionally trying to piss you off or depress you, but I think it's important that we talk about what happened. And on coindesk.com, I'm going to start with bitcoin because it got the worst of this and more yet to come. By the way, zoom out to the mud chart. Bitcoin did a major dump, major dump beneath a line of resistance, currently trending strongly downward. Many people estimate it's going to go further beneath 40,000. As I record this, it's 41, 200 ish, a low of 40,600 ish, and a high of 42, 800 ish, 900 ish, high volatility, but trending in the downward direction. And people were speculating that this was strategic, if you recall. And if you're new, by the way, welcome. So you don't know what I'm talking about. That's why I'm going to repeat it.
[00:05:28] Speaker C: And I apologize for those that are not new.
[00:05:30] Speaker B: But I think it's important to refresh where we were, because I said during the bitcoin ETF rollout that I suspected we were going to get some dumps, strategic dumps, designed to depress the price so that certain people can get in on a discount. I can't prove it, but it felt a little bit too convenient, the price being so low as what it was. Now, what we know is that grayscale, who's one of these, dumped a major amount of bitcoin very recently. What people may not understand because they were just going off the hype, which that's unfortunate, but maybe that's what it is. You may not understand. The whole backing on the ETF side is actual bitcoin. So if etfs go down, if people are selling the etfs, the bitcoin has to be sold. You're essentially, I don't want to say gambling, but you're essentially gambling around a pool of said asset, this being bitcoin. And so when the ETF goes down, the bitcoin must be sold, which that's the pressure right now. The ETFs are being sold or shorted in certain cases. And so that is going to cause sells of the bitcoin increasingly. So now I don't think it's going to last too long, but I warned about volatility was going to happen. I warned about potentially people trying to keep the price down and also there was some sell the news and there's a lot in play. Not only anything's wrong per se, I do think that everything will recover, but it's making people a little bit antsy, making me a little bit nervous, a little bit upset, frustrated, pissed off. Anticipating another bear, I would posit we may never have left the bear. Now I said, I don't see bull run. I saw a bull market and I clarified the distinction based on a user Tom collide on Blizzard channel that I thought was a great distinction to make. The bulls are still out. The bulls are still shopping. The bulls are still stacking. Accumulation is still happening. They're just getting crazy freaking discounts right now. So don't be understated. There are certainly volume drops in spots, but overall, the bulls are out shopping. It simply is that there's not a bull run. As I've repeatedly said, that's what you're seeing. You're seeing that the volume is there.
[00:07:41] Speaker C: They're biting up discounts because there are.
[00:07:44] Speaker B: Nervous people out there.
[00:07:45] Speaker C: There are sketchy people out there. I actually bought some of the bitcoin ETF and I was smart enough to do the fidelity one. And you're like, well, why the fidelity one?
[00:07:57] Speaker B: Of all of the ones I looked.
[00:07:58] Speaker C: At seemed like the one that was.
[00:08:01] Speaker B: Most predictable in what I suspected it.
[00:08:03] Speaker C: Was going to do. Of all the other ones, the grayscale took an absolute crap. Absolute crap. And I never trusted grayscale. I didn't trust Blackrock. I shares. I'm like, eh, fidelity just looked like, okay, this is pretty predictable price movement, as in I can almost pinpoint where it's going to go. Its low point that I can foresee. So I bought some and the price I bought is certainly higher than where it is now, but not by a lot. So I'm like very near the bottom of it.
[00:08:32] Speaker B: And then I put in an order, a limit order for it to hit $35 per. And these mother fathers out there, it's like they had it close at 35 70. I'm like mother fathers because I'm like, man, I can almost point at this chart and see exactly where this is going. I love that predictability. I love that it's reliable. From what I can tell, I could get it way off. It may crap down to $10, but the fidelity one doesn't look like it's trending that far that fast. Everything seems to have slowed to a crawl. At first it was like dollar, dollar, dollar. And then it went down to like fifty cents, fifty cents. And then it went down to like twenty cents and it went down to once I hit the $0.10 traversal, I said, this may be that point that I want to get in and then dcm my way down. So what it's essentially doing is at the point I bought, which is like $40, and then if I can get this 35, come on, that'll dca me to about $38, right? So that's not bad, because if it starts going back up again, I'll have more on the run that I expect is going to happen. When will that happen? I have no freaking clue. I am not a Nostradamus in that regard. I'm simply telling you that sentiment on the bitcoin side is way down and people are not really confident in where it's going. On the flip side, though, Ethereum has a slight upward trend, currently hovering at 24 six, a low of 24 25, a high of 25. And I actually stumbled across and I was going to do a coverage on it. Maybe I'll do it on a different episode. But there is a service called polymarket. And polymarket allows you to essentially place bets on different things. You can place bets on the US election, you can place bets on the price. They have one that says, what's the likelihood that Ethereum hits 3000 by the end of the year? And I was like, you know, I am too damn tempted to not take that bet because the only measure is that one candle has got to hit over that 3000 mark. And I'm like, come on. We're currently at just shy 25,000 and we're saying we're not going to be able to hit $500 off of a short pump run before the end of the month.
I'm like, I got to take that bet. So I'm looking into it. That's why I said, I'll probably do a coverage later, because I'm going to look into it and I might just put some money on that bad boy. You're doing your crypto so you can connect your wallet and do it. And I haven't done the deep dives and I don't know anything about risks. I'm not telling you to do it. I'm saying I'm considering doing because some of these are like, oh, geez, come.
It's one of them is New Hampshire. What's the likelihood know Donald Trump or Nikki Haley gets New Hampshire and you can bet no on people. So it's like, okay, these ods for Donald Trump not getting New Hampshire because of all the sketchy business that's happening, right? Because they're trying to block him from the primaries and the court cases. It's like, well, these odds are pretty dang good. Put $100 and get a thousand.
It's too tempting. So I am going to look into it, see if it makes any sense. I'll do a full on coverage of what I see and what I saw and what I experienced with some low numbers. I'm not going to go crazy with it, but for me a lot is riding on some of these where I'm like, that's some pretty good dude.
But Ethereum is trending slightly upward. It's not having anywhere near the damaged spot that bitcoin did. So we know that it's directly connected to the bitcoin etfs and we know that Grayscale's dump played a very major factor in what we saw the remainder of the episode. I wanted to, as I promised I would do on Tuesdays, I wanted to dig a little bit into the maker ecosystem. Maker. There's a token. It's actually called maker MKR out there and it has significant volatility. Peaked at high like 6000 per.
I think it launched at $20. Just to give you a sense of this, and I wanted to give it a fair shot. I wanted to talk a little bit deeper about it. I want to dig a little bit deeper into it because it's starting to get more attention than it did. It's been around for like years, so it's not new to the game. It's on the Ethereum chain as well as the avalanche. I think avalanche came like two years ago or something. So it's on two of the chains. If you were curious about it, I would recommend considering on the avalanche chain.
[00:12:43] Speaker C: Because of gas, it's significantly cheaper.
[00:12:45] Speaker B: But I wanted to talk about what this is. So in the big picture, this is an ecosystem. The token itself is supported under the DAO. So the DAO is a centralized autonomous organization. What happens is it's kind of a lending type of service, the way this works. And it's connected to Dai, which is one of the stable coins that you might have heard about. Maker. The token is the governance token underneath this. And there's a whole elaborate structure on this where it's designed to be as decentralized as it possibly can. It's designed to not rely, it actually says this on their site. To not rely on any sort of central financial, any sort of central banking.
[00:13:28] Speaker C: If you were to look at the.
[00:13:29] Speaker B: Wallets in this business, you're talking some very rich mother fathers here, these are big players. These are not your small retail. There's certainly retail in it, but they do not make up anywhere close of the majority. There's only a million of supply. So it's a very heavily constrained supply, but it has a lot of traction and a lot of velocity. And when people get in it, they don't tend to trade it on the frequent basis, so you're not going to see significant amounts. We saw volatility, of course, with the whole business, with FTX and everything, and Dai has had its issues. But the bottom line in this one, I was very intrigued at some of the stuff that they talked about. So just to kind of break this down, and I'll try to make it as simple as I possibly can.
When you have regular stable coins, right. USDC stands out. In my mind, the whole pitch is that they are largely, not all, but largely backed by fiat. And the fiat is somewhere in a bank, and that there should be a one to one tether. Most recently came out and said, no, we have assets, we're covered. We got a dollar. Dollar for dollar on this business. USDC has historically said we are dollar for dollar. When you see stories around stablecoins de pegging, there's a couple of things around this. If it's an algorithmic stablecoin, it means that whatever it's pegged to is being disrupted. Sometimes there may not be a one to one on the fiat side. That may cause that. This was a recent turmoil with tether, with the SEC, because they were speculation.
[00:14:54] Speaker C: That tether did not have one to one assets for everything that it was.
[00:14:57] Speaker B: Issuing out there, and that there may.
[00:14:59] Speaker C: Be excessive minting, aka printing of USDT, for which there was no fiat backing it, that was a whole big fiasco last year.
[00:15:08] Speaker B: Dai, which is part of this, is collateralized instead by other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and other assets that are connected to the ethereum ecosystem. Now, this is very similar, frighteningly so, to some things that the Luna, early Luna, not the new Luna, but the prior Luna ecosystem was doing, as in things were being paired, NFTX, where things were being paired to assets that are volatile themselves, which creates a necessary volatility in itself. And so the way that they did, the DaI, they built this ecosystem where you can lock your collateral into a contract so that you can get the decentralized and collateralized stablecoin as part of this locking into the contract. So if you can think of it this way, when you have a centralized exchange and you choose to do a transaction where you're going to leverage yourself, somebody else has made their cryptocurrency available for you to leverage, to take that leverage position. It's a very similar concept, except that in this, except that there's no centralized exchange in the middle, you're locking it as part of the smart contract, not in the hands of a central exchange. That intrigued me because one of the things the SEC was squawking about is this idea that this middleman is benefiting off of your cryptocurrency and you really don't have any control or management of it, where in this case their whole pitch is that no, you don't lose access to what's yours. It's yours, and you get the benefits as part of the smart contract.
[00:16:38] Speaker C: And it's governed by this dow that's.
[00:16:40] Speaker B: Over top of it, and proposals, when.
[00:16:42] Speaker C: There'S changes, has to be voted on, et cetera. And then the constrained inventory over top of it and tied to Ethereum, and audit and traceability with blockchain technologies, that sometimes is lacking elsewise.
[00:16:54] Speaker B: So when they talk about Dai, then as, okay, what's the benefit here in comparison to all these other ones? What they're talking about is that, well, you don't have to worry about significant price fluctuations with Dai in the way that we're doing it, and you don't have to worry about the fluctuations inherent to other stable coins tied to fiat assets because of the way that it conforms to a stronger asset, that being Ethereum, that is less likely to be significantly disrupted. Obviously, Ethereum was significantly disrupted not that long ago. So that's what it is. They also talk about trading pairs using DAi as a stable trading pair partner. So when there's a liquidity pool and we need to do some trades between it, the stability of DAI should, in theory, stabilize the trading pair such that trading across is largely a non issue. Sometimes that's a problem. If there's one token in a trading pair and it's starting to be unstable, can cause issues with trading, as in you might get the price impact too high that you may have seen on some of these. That's where that's coming from.
In this. They also built a lending and borrowing platform. So this is within the ecosystem, not like a coin rabbit, but within the ecosystem. Basically, you can borrow the dAi, collateralize your own assets to do so, and.
[00:18:17] Speaker C: Then when you lend your assets out.
[00:18:19] Speaker B: You can get interest back.
Now, I had some concerns about this whole lending and borrowing of assets because I wanted to understand, well, then if you're just basically doing the dAi, because essentially coin rabbit's doing something similar just with a different stable coin. This is just a contained within the ecosystem. But what concerned me is you've got, because I talked about these layers, you've got dai. It's allegedly, you know, collateralized by Ethereum. Ethereum is not necessarily stable. It can be heavily volatile, especially with this disruption we see here. And I'm assuming there has to be at least some bitcoin somewhere in play, perhaps not directly, but maybe indirectly. Well, then how does that disrupt on the lending side? So you say you're going to borrow a thousand dai.
[00:19:05] Speaker C: I'm just making up a number.
[00:19:06] Speaker B: You borrow a thousand dai, it's pegged to assets at a certain value pair.
[00:19:11] Speaker C: And then that value gets disrupted by.
[00:19:12] Speaker B: Garbage we see with Gary Gensler or what Jim Kramer, whatever. And how does that affect the value of the thousand? And it seems like what they're saying is that because the DAI is ultimately.
[00:19:23] Speaker C: Going to be collateralized by that same Ethereum, it doesn't really matter for the purposes of it. But there's got to be a balance, right? There has to be a balance of the value that you received at the.
[00:19:33] Speaker B: Time you took the loan and the.
[00:19:34] Speaker C: Present value as transacted. So when you pay back the loan, are you required to pay back more? Less?
[00:19:42] Speaker B: It doesn't really say, it doesn't really.
[00:19:43] Speaker C: Go deep into that.
[00:19:46] Speaker B: It also talks about cross border. So this goes to like the XRP kind of conversation. And it presents itself as a more secure and more stable option for transacting across borders. That caught my eye as well. And I know that dai traditionally has been this, but I was really interested in what they had talked about and how they had built in what they had tried to do. At least where I wanted to kind of dig personally, as in trade, I want to dig a little bit deeper and see what's going on with this. The last part of this that I'll talk about for the purpose of this episode, they actually have a burn as of October anyway. They have a burn. So I said it's a heavily constrained supply already. It's only a million tokens. Apparently when they have these maker tokens used to pay for fees or any penalties, they get burned. Well, and if they're liquidated, right. So sometimes the tokens, part of them might be burned off to cover debts, they may be liquidated. So that goes to the whole Luna business.
Now I'm putting the dots together.
Is it possible, in my mind, is it possible that this could be a stronger version of what Luna tried to do in the long term. So we're talking overspan because as I saw it, it seems like it's very well thought out, at least if nothing else. And its price stability, general price stability, seems to indicate that there is a strong confidence from wealthy players. We're talking the big time players of a thing. And its price right now is very similar to what you might invest if it was gold or something else. So I did plan to kind of buy into the ecosystem and actually participate. We're talking Dow participate and everything else and kind of see where this goes because I was very interested with everything they're describing. I have no idea for the level of risk that we're talking about with this, but it's available on pretty much every exchange possible.
Again, it's been around a long time, very long time, and the Dow seems to be very well managed. I didn't see any major issues per se, and at least as of a couple of years ago, they were trying to extend more tokens beyond ethereum. So that was good because I don't like that centralization of just the one. So I'm going to go in and I may do a follow on and say, here's what I thought about it. Here's what I'm feeling about it. Do I feel good about it? Do I feel not so good about it? Because it looks like they're trying to do a lot, and so I'm going to watch that very closely. Maker, Dow, maker, the token, if you've seen that price now, you understand why it's doing what it's doing, because again, very wealthy people are in this one, and its dow seems to be very well managed. And there's a lot that it does. There's a lot that it does and a lot that the maker token contributes to that ecosystem as a governance token itself. The last part I'll just mention, and this is kind of a selfish thing, but I wanted to call it to attention this and the evolution of it. If the shib team were smart enough, they could learn from this and take, and again, the possibilities are endless because you think about only a million tokens on this one and it's able to get this level of stability and rich people that believe in it. Bone has 250,000,000. Okay? So you start doing a burn. So when they talked about doing a burn on bone, I thought it was kind of nuts, but when I saw this one actually has the burn and it's a strong burn as in fees and penalties and that kind of stuff. That's actually a great case. Now, again, assuming the ship team's smart.
[00:23:12] Speaker C: That'S a condition that creates opportunity that Shibarium could leverage having its own blockchain.
[00:23:19] Speaker B: Which is something that's not here. They're hooking into the Ethereum chains, which isn't bad.
[00:23:25] Speaker C: But remember again, Ethereum, you lose some.
[00:23:27] Speaker B: Control because Ethereum is proof of stake.
[00:23:30] Speaker C: So you don't really have the level.
[00:23:31] Speaker B: Of autonomy that you might want.
[00:23:33] Speaker C: On the ship side. They talked about shy and all these other ones to maintain some level of autonomy, but I'm hoping they're smart enough to at least take some lessons from what these guys are doing. And jeez, the sky's the limit on something like this. Because remember, again, the maker token started at $22, skyrocketed as high as $6,000. That's with 1 million of supply, and that's with everything that they built. So the possibilities here, I now connect the dots of what shivarium and the Shib ecosystem could be. Again, assuming they're smart people.
[00:24:06] Speaker B: That's all I got. And I'm going to follow on this one again, as I said, maker, because I'm really intrigued by it. That's all I got about that one for the COVID The other piece I wanted to talk about, because I think it's important more than anything else.
I was watching some of these other garbage tokens that are showing up, like Troll and bonk and Pepe is kind of making a little bit of resurgence. And I saw this weewee. I saw the weewee and it rug pulled, and there's a Trump 2024. And I warn people in January, this is going to happen. Early January, this is going to happen. You're going to see a lot of crap show up.
And as I'm watching some of this crap, it's like, jeez, we're still not getting new money really in there. We're still at the $1.7 trillion on the market cap. It's not like we're getting major amounts of money flowing into cryptocurrency. As I record this, it's down to $1.63 trillion. We actually lost some, but these crap, it means that the same money is flowing into the crap. Well, there was one of them. I forget the name now, but Lee's mentioned on his channel that he felt might be an inside trade job where it's apparently going to get listed on finance and all these other ones. But it's getting like, I saw it had like half a billion in market cap. Crazy amounts of money thrown in it. Troll pumped at a point. Shib 20 pumped at a point. Troll is pumped. It's pumping right now. My message is, just as I always say, be careful. If you're a gambler, great. That's why I'm going to look at polymarket, because that's actually acknowledging it's gambling, right? But if you're going to gamble on some of these garbage ones, be careful, please, because I don't know what's going to happen with some of these. We've already had a number of rug pulls show up, obvious rug pulls, blatant rug pulls, and who knows what the future is going to hold.
I think the whole bitcoin ETF has caused a little bit of pause. Like some people are getting a little bit hesitant. That's why so much money flew out. But we're still going to get some crap. We're still going to go because Ethereum is running. And when Ethereum runs, and that's Solana because of the Bach business and some of these other ones, they're going to go on runs with these Solana based tokens. There's going to be some avalanche token. I guarantee you, you're going to see tokens spin up on all these crap chains to try to basically have liquidity chasing. And the thing is, if they're new, if people are new, they're not going to get on those chains. They're going to get on Ethereum. So, hey, the saving grace to all of this, the true saving grace to all of this really is if most of the crap goes to some of these other chains, it may lessen the amount of crap that we see on Ethereum. And that, I think, is a good thing because I did notice the other day the freaking gas on Ethereum was going out of control again, up to $70. And I'm like, screw you, bro. So that's the saving grace that I see. Of course, nfts are going to spike it again, Donald Trump's nfTs, anything down there, back in the news. So that's something to look forward to. But again, just be careful, please. Keep a roof over your head, food over your table, make sure your people are taken care of because it's going to be a wild ride coming up. I expect here in 2024, we already are off with a bumpy start and.
[00:27:14] Speaker C: Who knows where it's going to lead.
[00:27:16] Speaker B: And if polymarket is wrong, that's going to be a lot of money.
Om.
