[00:00:01] Speaker A: Welcome to Crypto Talk Radio, the podcast for everyday investors like you. Visit us on the
[email protected] and now here's your host, Leister.
[00:00:13] Speaker B: Thank you for that, Bailey. And welcome, everybody out there on Crypto Talk radio,
[email protected]. didn't think we'd get to this point, but here we are.
It's boring again. Crypto is boring again.
I'm at that point. I'm like, I never.
I was happy to get out of the chaos that was 2021. Don't misunderstand me. It was chaos. It was not good, not healthy, too many gamblers, too many casinos.
So I wanted a little bit of respite, look it up. But at the same time, I also didn't want straight up boredom. You're like, well, there's a lot happening. There is. But most of it does not directly affect you.
Most of it does not directly benefit you.
And it feels like we're still at that same spot we always have been, which is that at the end of the day, all roads lead to bitcoin. That doesn't feel like it's changed, at least not to me. It feels like we're still reliant on bitcoin to a significant degree. And I think big picture, there may be something to the statement that bitcoin is where the money should go if you do invest.
I'm not advocating it. I'm saying there may be something to that statement because all these other ones are just. They're so boring. Even with the Cardano. I'll briefly talk about that noise frustrating shib. I'm going to talk about that noise frustrating Some of the mainstays. I'm going to talk about them. The new stuff just seems like, well, that's shiny. It's a new shiny. It's not really impressing me.
Anyway, let's talk numbers. Today's episode will likely be somewhat short, but I do have a couple of bits I want to make sure I get through.
Coinmarketcap.com we're going to start with bitcoin. The reason I'm starting with bitcoin is to emphasize on its month chart that I zoomed out to the downward trend continues from before with a struggle that was not seen prior.
Bitcoin currently not just shy of 92,000 bucks, it did recover from when it dropped down beneath 85 grand. Briefly, I still don't see strength in upward momentum. It feels like downward momentum. Downward pressure is opposed on bitcoin that I still don't see strength of climb. Hopefully that changes, hopefully it reverses. But as of right now, it feels like we're headed back down again, at least maybe as just a brief dip before climbing again.
There was a little bit of news that came out of the strategy microstrategy camp that might have contributed to some of it. I'll talk about that here in a little bit. But speaking about Ethereum briefly, Ethereum currently about the $3,000 mark downward trend following Bitcoin. Most everything now is following Bitcoin. We are seeing an alignment with Bitcoin's motion, which is what told me that it feels like, at least at the moment, bitcoin is where most of the focus and attention should probably go. If you are interested in cryptocurrency as opposed to some of these alts, but not advocating, I'm saying that I don't see a compelling reason for any project to have your core focus over bitcoin if you're going to get into crypto. That's ultimately what I'm saying. Speaking of, I was browsing around and like I said, I don't watch Bleez's show anymore because he went Portrait, which makes no damn sense to me and I can't stand that crap because normal people like myself use computers. But even if you're using a phone, they can rotate the phone. You should always record in landscape. Recording in Portrait's terrible. I don't know why he thinks it's a smart idea. Maybe it's because it gives him scrolling to just scroll. And the other thing is him. And I think it's da Vinci. Jeremy too.
They're starting to rely too much on ChatGPT and Grok. You know, if all you're gonna do is read what AI does, what good are you? Like, what value do you bring to the business if you're just reading off Grok?
I'm not suggesting that you don't leverage some information from Grok as a base source of content, but I think you should be adding your own context, not reading from it. Like there's a difference.
You should be speaking from your own brain. Otherwise why the have it? I'm sorry, but it bothers me. I'm seeing more and more people just reading from Grok, reading from Chat GPT.
There's no value in having you. Then somebody could just spin up an artificial show on YouTube and play that audio with an AI voice and it's the same thing. We don't need you. We can automate like you numb nuts have now. Taken an industry that should have been largely insulated from AI and robots and you have now just opened the door for it to be automated to where you're not needed. That's the Now I'm not saying that I would miss the vast majority of them. I wouldn't. I'm saying how stupid must you be to not create your own brand and your own voice and your own presentation so that you stand out in a crowd and you're not beholden to AI? That's frequently wrong. It's frequently wrong. I've already debunked at least Grok because it got Cretan's Clearwater Revival completely wrong.
It got multiple bands wrong. Like it's it is so inept it shocks me. There are sometimes it gets it somewhat right, but the half the time it's wrong to the point Google had to put a disclaimer up that said you need to verify what it says. Don't just take it on face.
But what I'm getting at is that all of these various youtubers almost to a te seems like there's a lack of desire to speak about certain other projects that are out there like xrp. XRP has again I said XRPOS or whatever those the group. I think somebody said XRP Army. That sounds childish, but we'll go with it. Whatever that there's those people and then there's other people that say XRP is a waste of time. It's not going to go anywhere. It's a scam. It's this, that and the other XRP I know has a lot of fundamental things that would be appealing to the main Wall Street. I don't know that you can ignore xrp, but I also have said XRP feels like a long game. Feels like it's not going to be anytime in the near future and people are looking at the price shifts and the somewhat volatility of bitcoin and they're treating it as the only thing that makes any sense right now. That's what I'm saying that perhaps bitcoin is what deserves the focus simply because it is moving where XRP has not done.
At the end of it it all ties back to bitcoin. Regardless xrp. I looked at market cap in the billions of dollars and I don't see that it's going to go very many much higher than where it is. It doesn't mean you wouldn't get something out of it, but I don't see it's going to go much higher than what it is but to say that it's a scam or a waste of time, I don't agree with that.
Many of these YouTubers again are simply listening to AI telling them that XRP is doomed. XRP is not. This XRP's won't go here. They're just taking it on face and not using their own brain.
It's, it's disconcerting. I guess it's the best way to answer another one.
Terra Luna Classic, that's another one which, you know, I stopped talking about it because I knew it wasn't going to go anywhere. After Doe Rug Pull, AKA Do Kwon scammed you guys, I knew it wasn't going to go anywhere. So I didn't waste any time talking about it any further. I did the challenges, I did all sorts of stuff.
Nobody was hooking into it. And then now I noticed that its market cap is at an all time low. It's burned what appears to be about a trillion worth of its supply, at least on the total. But the max supply is infinite, which means it could mint again.
Will it meant again? I don't know. Somebody said that it was locked out of the contract. That's a trust me bro kind of mentality that I don't really flow with.
But the volumes in an all time low, the market cap's all time low. Then you get garbage like Monad and all these other ones that launch and they take most of the money and shift over there because they're trying to. It's just money shifting to different projects. So even if Terra Luna Classic were something good, it doesn't matter because of being left behind by all these other projects that are spinning up, taking people's money, taking liquidity out of the industry.
So I'm not suggesting for a moment that there's anything per se wrong with it. I am saying that at the end of the day, these legacy projects that have been out there for the long haul, they're not moving. People are getting frustrated and they're looking for these new ones and the new ones are garbage. That's ultimately what I'm saying.
I mentioned about the whole strategy formerly known as microstrategy, Michael Saylor and the buying of bitcoin. And I talked about the fact that at some point they're gonna have to sell. At some point they're going to have to, they're going to have to do something. Okay, they're going to have to do something with their bag. The CEO strategy came out recently. He was talking about if this, that and the other Thing happens, we could end up selling the bitcoin. Of course, anybody that thought they weren't going to sell is crazy. And I felt like they were hitting critical mass. I felt like there's been an awful lot of buying and at some point you're going to have to sell this business. There's no way you're going to be able to keep this momentum for the very long.
I also talked about how some of these risk assessment organizations can influence the decision to do sell.
Ultimately, the idea is with investors on whatever company, say just like you in crypto, right? If you put $1,000 in something, you expect to have a at least $1,000 worth of value at any given time. Okay, what happens if the value of that company or the value of its shares or the value of its stocks or the value of its of whatever holdings makes it to where they cannot assure a straight dollar value for what you put in as an investor, and you're one of many investors. So let's take the whole pool. Yours is a piddly little thousand dollars, but there's a pool of $1 million total just for round numbers, this value, because there's these again, organizations that apply that value to the value of the company and they do an assessment, they come back with a number, and that's what. And that's just taken if that company ends up going down to $800,000, right, just for a round. Let's say it's round number of investors, round number investments and everything. It probably isn't, but let's just do that round number. So it goes down to 800,000 bucks from $1 million.
So then if everything was round and everything was even, your value is now 800 bucks instead of a thousand, right?
Well, the problem is you are an investor, you are entitled to dollar equivalency. You're entitled to say, my investment is a thousand dollars. And that's what I expect to have.
If we start seeing significant loss across the investor pool, what happens? FOMO sell.
If FOMO sale happens, what happens then? Domino effect. More people do it, Values lost, sentiments lost, etc. And so what companies may do is try to figure out a way to generate more funds.
There's multiple ways to do that. But what the CEO strategy is saying is that selling bitcoin is one of those opportunities. We might very well do it if it turns out that our value number goes down to a certain point or lower, where the only way that we can restore that confidence in our investors is to sell this bitcoin we treat it like any other asset. In other words, I said at the start of the show, his comments may have caused a little bit of the panic that we saw with bitcoin where people were interpreting that to say that they were on the verge of starting to sell. That's not what he said.
He's just simply saying that in the worst case scenario, it's an asset.
As an asset, it may need to be sold because we need to make sure our investors are kept whole.
So if anybody was invested in MicroStrategy FOMOED in off of what Saylor was doing, he's simply saying that this is not a guarantee of value.
We'll do everything we can.
Right now, it's, it's kind of a house of cards because in order to get the money to buy the bitcoin in the first place, I talked about this. They were issuing stock, they were creating debt instruments and then they were using the capital from those to buy the bitcoin. Well, now what you've done is you said the value of this business is connected, intrinsically linked to bitcoin.
And if for whatever reason there were some sort of an issue with what's going on and specifically the value of bitcoin, even if you think about it because of this link, then it's possibly may need liquidate assets just like anything else.
I was intrigued that this guy came out and said that, but it didn't surprise me.
It just didn't.
What did surprise me though, recently in November, there were a couple of these investors in this strategy where they were shorting it like a month ago because they saw it to be a bubble. They figured there's no way this can sustain. I talked about this in an older episode, I think like a month ago maybe where it's like this, this shorting. The only reason they would short to this degree was they saw it was like the bubble, like there's something that's not going to sustain.
And is it possible that when these people did that, it triggered that CEO to come out and say that? Not to get them to sell necessarily, rather to encourage them to say investors, look, we, we care about you guys. We're going to make sure you're whole. Even if it means dumping this bitcoin? Well, if I'm right, I don't know that I am, but if I am, consider what that does to the price of bitcoin. Right? This is the flaw of what strategy was doing, which is tying to fiat. So close people estimated if strategy were to sell the bottom for Bitcoin, I think it says 75 grand or something. Some people even said 70 grand, it would go even lower.
When I said 88 and I said it didn't feel like it was going too much lower than 88, right now, we bounced off that number. We went a slight bit lower, but we bounced off that number.
Let's speculate. If strategy does sell and it goes down into the 70s, there's going to be a domino effect.
There's going to be FOMO sellout.
Will it get to this catastrophic crash like we saw when it went down to 12,000? Absolutely not. I think those days are gone.
But I am saying that I'm now, I'm now leaning towards the school of thought that we might go into the 70s, because I've always felt strategy's gonna have to sell at some point.
It's unrealistic to think they won't.
You might be wondering, well, okay, well, what do you do? What. What do you recommend? I can't recommend anything.
I can't. I'll tell you what I will do.
If things go down, the first thing I'm going to look to do is double what I have in my Bitcoin etf.
You think that's crazy? No, because the Bitcoin etf, it's like options in a way. It's cheap to get in, but there's significant return value off of it. It just is. Because Bitcoin is going to go back up. But I'm insulated from the Bitcoin direct deal. I can use fiat to do it without having to go through the nonsense of those, like, banks and all those that need the KYC and all this crap. I don't have to do any of it, but I could have that as. And that's my nest egg. And then I borrow against it. I think that's huge because for me, I, I don't even keep significant direct crypto bags anymore. I just don't.
Everything goes to either my Ethereum ETF or the Bitcoin ETF period. And I again, borrow against as I need, but then they're just, they're asset classes that sit off the side. I, I'm. I'm kind of past this era of direct crypto bags, because I do have some, but it's not like significant investment in it. Like with the Thorium exchange. I still get stuff from that and that's like, you know, 20, 30 bucks here and there, and that's about it. I don't. And then I'll use some of that even to pay for things online.
I don't put money into direct crypto, not like I used to.
I'm. I'm done with that era. I put a lot in crypto over years, and I'm kind of done with that era. So that's my stance. And I suspect all of this Rush strategy was doing all this rush. Some of these companies are doing.
They're gonna. I suspect they're gonna get to that same vein. They're gonna get to the vein where they're not just buying billions. You know, I think that, you know, the whole Trump stuff is different.
And the announcement, Trump was going to align with crypto.com to use the Kronos chain. And then Zach XBT came out and said it's a scam because you burned 70 million or whatever it was, and then now you're reprinting or reminting them.
So there's centralization coming.
That's what I see, centralization.
Less of these companies buying in mass like they're doing right now.
Bitcoin will still be in play, but it's going to be pumped and dumped, essentially.
Do we get to that million Bitcoin? Who knows? But the short term doesn't look good for my lens. I could be flat out wrong, I don't know. But I'm. That's what I see.
The other piece is the FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell and what he's going to say.
Ultimately, there is the expectation of another rate cut.
And another rate cut would be positive for cryptocurrency just because it is.
I also see that prices are finally coming down for homes, houses, and that has a potential to be strong for cryptocurrency.
So I would keep an eye on rates. I would keep an eye on whatever the heck's going on with this Trump business.
I would keep an eye on bitcoin's price almost exclusively.
This is a recommendation long term.
I think we have a ways to go before we're at any significant momentum. I said, I don't see any significant positive till 2026.
We got one month left to see if Leister's telling the truth or not.
But that's what I see.
I guess big picture, part of the problem with people's investment strategy is they're still thinking of the casino of 2021.
And I'm going to keep repeating what I said.
Those days are gone. I don't see them coming back. Thank goodness the Pump Fund that. That hype has died down.
Right. You're still seeing tokens spun up but there's not. We're not seeing like the squid game type level of chaos. We're not seeing anywhere near what we did before.
Everything's much quieter. As I said in the front. It's quiet things quieter. Things are more calm, things are more logical.
Profit opportunity is not as strong as it was, but risk is somewhat lower. Not greatly lower, but somewhat lower.
I like everything that's going on right now, but I realize that there are people that are really frustrated. I perfectly understand that, fully understand that and grasp why that would be the case.
And I can't tell you what to buy or get into or any of it. I can't.
I would simply say keep your eye on Bitcoin because it's going to tell you the long game of this whole business.
Bitcoin is and always has been the key. And I don't know that there's going to be anything until we solve what is Bitcoin's future. By future I don't mean that it will die.
I mean its future use cases.
Banks. When will banks really adopt it? What will happen with fintech? Will Fintech really overcome banks?
I don't think so. But it's a question to ask. What does physical bank branch mean? What does cash mean? The printing, the rates, debt, war, all these things have to be kind of settled before we can really look to the future and make some plans. Precious metals are still there waiting for you by the way. Keep an eye on those because I have a feeling.
Sam.
Sa.
