#Bitcoin’s Dominance Is In The 50's

December 06, 2023 00:30:03
#Bitcoin’s Dominance Is In The 50's
Crypto Talk Radio: Basic Cryptonomics
#Bitcoin’s Dominance Is In The 50's

Dec 06 2023 | 00:30:03

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Episode Transcript

[00:00:01] Welcome to Crypto Talk Radio, the podcast for everyday investors like you. Visit us on the [email protected]. And now here's your host, Leister. Thank you for that, Bailey. And welcome, everybody out there in Crypto. Talk radio [email protected]. Yeah, I'm back in that middle groove again, folks. I'm back in the groove of potentially considering and actually I'm going to actively search now that I think about it. I was debating in my mind, I'm like, this is a personal update by the way, from Leister [email protected]. Welcome and welcome back. And I'm mid rant. I apologize. I have to give you some context. You don't know what the hell I'm talking about. I want to give a little preface. I'm not going to spend a lot of time, I promise, but my endeavors so for those that are new, crypto is not my full. The podcast is not my full. I have endeavor my own business and I make a crap ton of money there. And so crypto is more of a hobby. The podcast is something I like to do. So the endeavor I've had ups and downs and turmoil and what I've surmised from these people, not all, but the vast majority, they lack energy. And it seems like it's the state overall that I'm in, but they lack energy, they lack drive, they lack passion, they lack desire. They don't have anywhere near the go getter attitude that I'm used to, that I was trained to have. The idea that when you see a problem, you fix it. When it's something stupid, you fix it, when it doesn't make sense, you fix it. That's not there. So I literally called out and then I had the person say, quote, I'm not familiar with firewalls, so I'm just mind blown. It's like these people work technology and you don't know firewalls. Now, I don't expect you to know the deep innards of firewalls. Of course that's a specific thing. But you should certainly know the basic concept of how a firewall works because you probably have one in your home, or at least you should. And if you don't, that's a problem because that's why I'm so frustrated. So this whole situation is apparently some server side changes happened. This is on a different side of the shop than mine, and they allowed a different team to manipulate the servers in a way that basically broke stuff. [00:02:03] When they went live, they realized there was all sorts of problems. They didn't actually fix the root cause, they just patched it. Well, the patching now it's coming to surface. Okay, if you had tracked this better and did it right, we now wouldn't have this problem that we're having now. Well, their response is basically just shrug their shoulders and be like, well whatever, it's working. [00:02:23] And it's just that's where I'm like these kind of people. I don't know how people survive dealing with just slots. Like that's what they are, they're slots. They don't self actualize they don't want to do what they should do to make stuff work at the best. And there's no urgency. There's no competitive spirit. There's no energy whatsoever. Listen, I'm old, okay? I am dirt old. Some of these people, I'm just appalled that some of them have a job because it's like, how can you be such a sloth and not recognize this needs to be fixed? And then because I'm dealing with layers above that don't understand the fundamentals of what we're talking about, they can't intervene and say, yes, that is stupid. And then the people who broke it, they don't understand why it's a problem because they look to us to tell them, but I wasn't involved in the decision, or I would have told them, this is stupid. You should fix it like this. [00:03:13] Now I'm done with my rant. I want to talk some cryptocurrency. I want to get my mind off this garbage. So thank you for letting me rant a little bit. I promise there won't be any more ranting. I want to talk cryptocurrency. There's good news and bad news, but certainly there's not as much bad news as what I dealt with my endeavors. So I want to talk some cryptocurrency and get that off my mind. Thank you. [00:03:40] All right, let's talk cryptocurrency and talk about some positives stuff. I don't know if you can call this positive. I mean, I guess it depends on your perspective. Let's go to CoinDesk.com. If you want to follow along CoinDesk.com and I zoom out to the month chart. I'm going to look at Ethereum, because Ethereum had a bit of a moment. Ethereum was climbing a high of 2300, low of 21, 90. [00:04:02] Very good, very positive. There is certainly agreed mentality out there. People are buying into cryptocurrency like nuts, and it's a great thing. And Bitcoin also had a great moment, a low of 41, four, a high of 44, four significant amounts of climb. Because, remember, it wasn't that long ago that we were down in about the 36,000 range, and then all of a sudden we go on a run. [00:04:27] And I want to talk about a couple of points because I think they're important with respect to how we got to this level of run up. Then I want to talk about the run up itself, and I want to contrast it with the month chart. Because if you were to follow the month chart and kind of go back, although it is an upward trend and it's clearly in the positive, a couple of things happened that made people a little bit skittish and nervous. I want to talk about those things. [00:04:55] First of all, there's the overall sentiment, the total market cap. I talked about total market cap in all of cryptocurrency and its importance on where we are and the value of cryptocurrency. The total market cap as I speak and record this is $1.62 trillion, which, if you remember not long ago, we were very close to about 1.11 point ten. 1.22 was our mid line at a point, and now we're way high above that. So a lot of money. [00:05:29] New money. I say new, quote, unquote. It's not really new. These are people that are coming back into it. These are people that got out during the bear and they sat out on the bench and now they're coming back in. That's what you see here. So $1.62 trillion is an amazing number. Fantastic number. But the important number in addition to that one is the market cap for specifically bitcoin. The market cap for specifically bitcoin is $859,000,000,000, almost half of the total market cap. What does this tell us? This tells us that bitcoin's dominance is not the same as what it was before. Even though the money is flowing in, it's not like it's all going towards bitcoin like we saw before. Bitcoin's dominance is only just shy of 53%. There was a time when bitcoin's dominance was like in the 70%, 80%, and now it's gone down. Do you know what that tells us? This tells us a couple of things. Number one, stable coins have a bit of this dominance. Number two, altcoins have a bit of this dominance. Well, volatility is sure to follow. So my message to you is, since we expect that volatility is going to follow, because if the money is truly not flowing all directly towards bitcoin, or at least the majority of it, it means that it's flowing towards assets that tend to have a volatility that increases risk. There's that word again. And if you decide to trade whichever tokens or coins or whatever you decide to trade, it means you got to be very careful because it could be volatility may bite you. And I'll talk about that here momentarily. But I thought this metric is very interesting, and it's not one I've talked about before, the percentage of bitcoin's dominance being lower during this run than what we saw in 2021. Because in 2021, it kind of went in phases. Initially, we had a strong bitcoin dominance. The all coins kind of followed suit, but we always maintained a bitcoin dominance. And when I say bitcoin dominance, I'm looking at, at a minimum 65%, right? 65% or greater on a skew. It skews heavily towards bitcoin. Not here, where it's like right on the line of 50 50. That may explain some of the price movement that didn't make any sense that I'll talk about here momentarily. It doesn't mean we're not up. We are up. But the reason I started with Ethereum is because I noticed its trend seemed to be stronger in general than what bitcoins was doing. Bitcoin is certainly going up. Don't get it twisted. Bitcoin is almost up $10,000. That's huge. I'm talking about the trend line and the velocity speed at which it's going up seem to be stronger overall on the Ethereum side, which caused me to look deeper into the dominance factor and try to determine if this was bitcoin losing dominance. I say losing. I put that in quotes. All I'm saying is that whatever it is that you're invested in, make sure you're careful. Make sure it's not yolo. Please make sure you're taking your profits because although this is clearly a bull run, at least at these infantile stages, although it is this, you still have the volatility aspect that's going to play a part here. And we don't know where everything's going to go. We do expect that there's profit opportunities. That's a given. Not every token is going to move in the same direction. So diversity of portfolio is going to be imperative for you to make sure that you're making good money and that you're staying safe. Make sure it's diverse. Make sure you have a variety of different things that you invest in. If you're going to invest in cryptocurrency, make sure there's a variety. Don't yolo into just one thing and don't hold without taking profits unless that's your strategy. I say this is a great opportunity to make some profits and you're going to want to make sure that you are diverse. Choose a lot of different projects. I had a question asked about, well, what's the selection criteria? I can't tell you your selection criteria. You're going to have to come up with your own selection criteria. I don't want to share my selection criteria because I don't really have one. Some of it's gut instinct, some of it is just a gut instinct that this is going to be something at some point. And I have a patience that a lot of people don't have. I'm not a gambler. I'm very risk averse with a lot of things. It doesn't mean I don't put larger than a normal amounts of money at certain projects. It means that I am less likely to gamble on some garbage simply to get a ten X or something, because you could always toss $10,000 or something, get a ten X and cash out 90 grand. Sure. [00:09:52] I'm not that risk tolerant. Not me. So I can't tell you what the strategy should be or is because it's going to be different for you than it is for me. Here's some general rules of thumb. [00:10:03] Number one, as I've said, the core coins can't steer you wrong. If it's something that powers the gas on a blockchain, it probably can't steer you wrong. I say that if you look at something like bone, bone is the outlier exception for a couple of reasons that I'll talk about later in the episode. But if you think about ethereum itself, you think about polygon, which is transitioning to the actual polygon token instead of matic. If you think about phantom, if you think about AVAX, phantom is having some issues, but AVAX is one I'll say even injective I'll say even ICP. Internet, computer, some of these other ones you really can't go wrong. With them at some level. But the math doesn't lie. The vast majority of them, the most you can expect is a ten X out of them. There's nothing to shake a stick at for a ten X gain, especially when it's a guaranteed gain. And when Ethereum runs, they're going to run. That's almost a guarantee. So it's nothing to shake a stick at. But you got to temper your emotions. You got to control what you're thinking and what you're saying. Because you don't want to get stuck in a situation where you go yolo off into something thinking you're going to get 100 X and maybe it crashes, crashes and burns. Or you put $100 in there and say it does go ten X, what's, $1,000? And you're like, wow, that's a lot, right? Because if you put 100 in and you get 900 gain, that's huge. But psychologically you're thinking it's not a lot because you've been conditioned to go for the to the moon and the millions and millions and millions that aren't realistic. Whatever your trade strategy is. Why I can't tell you what to do because you've got to choose what makes sense for you. That rhymes. I'm just simply saying the core coins can't steer you wrong as number one. Number two, again, the things I've talked about on different projects, a strong website, a utility of some kind, it does something gas, that's a utility. But let's say it's not a gas. Let's say it's a regular token and it exists on a blockchain, BNB or Ethereum, it should do something. It should do something that adds value and it should be outside the crypto bubble more than anything else. You should be able to explain why you are what you are. And number three, and most important, the vast majorities of these are long place. They're not going to make you rich overnight and you're going to have to wait. And they just take time. It's not that they won't get somewhere, they probably will get somewhere. But you're just going to have to wait. You got to wait it out. There's nothing wrong with this, but I think people have a hard time with that. It's really difficult for them to wrap their head around that patience factor. The idea that something may happen at some point in a couple of years future. And everything's about timing, the last bit. And I said this to somebody on Coin Market Cap, if all you do and you know yourself, right, if all you do is react to the green candle and that's when you buy and that's when you know that you're going to buy it's when you see it's going green because you think it's now the right time. I challenge, like I said before, why is it that you wait to green? Because by the time it hits green, probably a little bit too late. If you think about it in terms of products at the store, you're waiting for discounts at the store. You're waiting for the price to go down. You're waiting for the opportunity to buy in. You don't want to pay full price, so you're looking for what? A discount? That's the red. So why is it in cryptocurrency that you're triggered to buy off the green as opposed to buying off the red? Why is it in cryptocurrency you're triggered to sell off the red as opposed to selling the profit off the green? Because it's psychological. That's what you see everybody that's FOMO, right? That's what you see other people doing, and you're following the trend. And you have to train yourself to do the opposite. You have to train yourself for the tokens that you choose to invest in. Train yourself to look for discounts, whatever your tokens are. I'm not telling you which tokens because I can't. I'm saying you have to train yourself to look for discounts if you expect to get profit, because the only way you're going to get real profit is to buy when it's a discount, sell to get that profit and maximize how much profit by selling when it's in the green as opposed to when it's in the red. It's psychological and it's hard. I know it's hard, especially if you don't make a lot of money. If it's a little bit of money, hopefully it's not all of your money, but if it's a little bit of money, maybe $50 or $100, and it's all you've got in discretionary money, I know how hard it is, trust me. I'm saying you have to condition yourself to not be tempted off that candle, to just FOMO react and use your alerts and use your messaging. If you're in an exchange, they have tools that will help you, but their graph by default is triggered to FOMO you. So I am going to encourage you strongly to be careful with whatever it is you choose to do during this bull run that's coming, because it is coming. It's crystal clear that it's coming. Be careful of what it is and don't throw all your money at stuff. And most importantly, this is an opportunity for you to make some good money, but you're going to have to train yourself differently than what you've been used to in the past. Many of us have been in it for years, and we see the cycles and we see it's the same thing, and eventually you get to that realization, you know what, I'm screwing myself by selling when it's red and buying when it's green as opposed to the opposite. So something to think about and just kind of keep in mind. [00:15:01] I want to talk about the Shib ecosystem ever so slightly. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it, but a couple of things came up and I wanted to cover them. First is about Shib burn. I did an update about the Shib burn and their messaging where they basically they ran through the wringer, some more information came out about this. We had a significant amount of burn that happened. And then there was a message that said there was the first burn of Shib on Shibarium, which caused people to cheer and yay hoot and holler. And then somebody asked the question, well, are you going to be tracking this Shiburn? And Shibburn said we can't. [00:15:34] And I wanted to take this opportunity to explain the problem, the inherent problem here, because it's not exclusive to Shivarium. It's everywhere. So Ethereum is a layer one. Shib's, its contract, is on Ethereum. Even now, the existence of Shivarium does not negate the existence of Shib on Ethereum. Shib is going to be on Ethereum because Shivarium is a layer two. A layer two is on top of the layer one, which means that just because you do something on a layer two does not actually do that same on a layer one and vice versa. If you're familiar with Pulse Chain, it's a very similar concept. The idea that it's on Ethereum and it's going to be on ethereum has not changed and its supply is unique to that chain. So what Shiburn is describing is the idea that the token itself still technically exists as long as it exists on the layer one. So if you don't burn it on the ethereum chain, it's not actually burned, it's not actually removed. That's number one. Number two, and I've talked about this on a past [email protected]. The burn, the way we do it is they send to a dead wallet, which takes it out of circulation. I'm not a fan of this because it still exists. So your circulating supply is getting affected by it, but your total supply is not getting affected. To do the total supply burn, you'd have to actually do a burn function that destroys the token completely, as in it can never be recovered and it's not part of the total supply. The misconception when you're looking at tools like CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap is that you don't see that circulating supply go down. The reason for this is that those tools are they need to be told which wallets are the so called burn wallets. Because of this whole sending to a burn wallet, if you do the function burn, they can scan the existing chain and see that the token literally was destroyed from being existing again. But nobody does that, right, except for Thorium. So because Shib is not doing that kind of burn, it's just doing the dead wallet type burn, that means those tools have to refactor to remove it from the circulating supply. Many of them don't do it or they don't do a good job doing it. When this burn, quote unquote, happens on Shibarium, the problem is that it didn't remove the tokens from circulation on Ethereum. And that's all that technically that token still exists. And I know that's confusing. I saw a bunch of people confused. Just understand the token. The Shib contract itself, bones contract itself, leash's contract itself. They are on ethereum. Transactions must happen on Ethereum to affect them fully, regardless of what's happening on the Shabarium side. In a perfect world, a transaction on Shabarium would execute the same transaction on the Ethereum side. They can't, at least not right now. That's not how it works. They may get there. And some of the devs came out on the ship side and said that they're going to build additional burning mechanisms effective in January 2024 that will allow some improvements to the way that tokens are burned. I'm saying that we're not there yet. So you're going to see all these numbers of millions and millions and billions and billions of burns. I need you to temper your expectations because it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to update the Ethereum side, which is the real contract. And until that happens, you're not going to see tools like CoinMarketCap reflect those changes. [00:18:54] The SEC is out again. Now they're chiming in on the whole TerraForm Labs case. This is the luna and Doe rugpool aka doe kwan. The SEC basically says, you know what, Judge, on this case, we want you to make a ruling whether or not TerraForm Labs offered and sold unregistered securities. So they're doing an end run. And if you heard my episode about the outcome when the initial finding was made and the SEC took an L against Ripple, I said, they're not done. They took this. And they're going to wait in the wings until they have an opportunity to kind of slip in there, slip into the DMs, and this is where we're at. So now they're trying to and the reason they want this is so that it's on record from an actual judge of whether or not something was considered an unregistered security. Because if it turns out that Luna, as in Terra Luna, was considered unregistered securities at the point of sale, they can go back and say, look, these guys were unregistered securities. This guy over here is doing the same thing. It's an end run. It's blatant, it's transparent. That's what they're doing. I thought it was interesting seeing this. Hopefully the judge is not an idiot. But some of these judges, you never know. And of course this judge is out in New York, so who knows? I don't know what to think. I'm going to keep an eye on that one because it is intriguing to me. Speaking of the SEC, then, the SEC recently delayed Grayscale's Ethereum spot ETF application postponing the decision. Now this caused people to be a bit frustrated because, of course, Cognizant had said before, look, you need to put this decision out. There's no reason to delay this. What's happening is that at least a theory is that SEC is delaying decisions on these so that they can approve a whole bunch of them all at the same time. There's no guarantee of this, but that's the expectation. Bloomberg came out and said it's roughly a 90% chance that they're going to approve at least the Bitcoin spot ETFs and chances are they're going to approve these at the same time because it's roughly the same thing for as far as Spot ETFs. Futures ETFs have already been approved on both the bitcoin and ethereum side. So there's really no reason not to approve the spot ETFs because the level of risk is actually lower on the spot side for these versus ETF. And I said that what the SEC is reconciling with is, what about the volatility aspect and the fact that this could cause crazy amounts of uncertainty. With respect to price movement, which I talked about on the stock market side, they have the halting mechanism in place that basically allows them to block transactions whenever they f and feel like it. If they think that things are out of control and people can lose money and they're afeared that the same thing can happen here, that things kind of go out of whack and then people lose money, well, I mean, it is what it is, right? I don't agree with the delays and the games and everything else, but everybody seems pretty optimistic that these will be approved in or around January because that's when they need to make a decision. So we'll have to watch and see what that all looks like. [00:21:48] The last bit I'm going to talk about and I hesitated doing so, but now is a good time as I need to get the hell out of the way side of chain. [00:21:58] So if you've been out of the ecosystem so some people listening to the [email protected] may have found the podcast because of Saitama and you may be one of those that either was or is in Saitama. I don't know if you follow on social media, kudos to you if you don't, but if you didn't and you don't know. So the cult leader, Russell Armand, he's out of there. MK Manny the Hitman took over control and he's made a bunch of changes. And one of those changes is that the Satama token as you know it is going away. They're getting rid of it. You can consider this essentially a V three, effectively because the way that they're doing it is almost like a V three. What they did is they spun up another contract for cited chain. Side of chain is their attempt at what they describe as a layer zero blockchain, if you're like. Okay, what the hell is that? Okay, so layer zero avalanche is a layer zero. So if you wanted to understand what this means for you, it means that, bottom line, the Satama token will not exist. [00:23:05] They did an AirDrop. The AirDrop is on the finance smart chain. So your Saitama was ethereum and of course gas was nailing you to the wall and as a result they ripped you off on your V two airdrops because they could not get the V two out because of the gas was too damn high. I'm one of those never got any. So what they did is they decided to go Binance Smart chain instead so that they could save on gas. And they've already dropped all the tokens allegedly to everybody who held Satama tokens before on the Ethereum chain. So if you don't know what I'm talking about and you don't know that you do or don't have these tokens, you're going to need to dial in to. And I think they have it on the blog now. But on the Saitamatoken.com site, you're going to need to connect one of these either there or telescam or X, Twitter or something get you're going to need to get on one of these. I don't really care which, but you're going to need on one of these so that you can get the new contract address, so that you can add it to your wallet. And that's how you're going to see it because it's finance smart chain. It's not going to automatically show up. There actually is a site of chain on the Ethereum side. You did not get airdrops of that one and hardly nobody's on the Ethereum side. All the holders, the 170,000 or whatever holders are on the finance side. You can buy the Ethereum side through uniswap if you want to, but all the holders, the existing holder count is on the Binance Smart chain side. [00:24:34] Well, the cited chain. The interesting thing, there's two things. [00:24:38] First, people are curious, well, why are they doing the layer zero chain? [00:24:45] I'll do my best to simplify this down. [00:24:50] It's going to be hard to follow it, but I'll do my best because it's kind of overly technical. It's kind of overly technical. [00:24:58] The bottom line is, if I don't want to be dependent on another chain's activity or performance, I'm probably going to need to create a layer zero. [00:25:09] That's the simplest that I can do without being overtechnical with it. [00:25:14] So Cardano is a layer two chain. It's off the side. It does its own thing. It is not disrupted or impacted or affected by anything that's happening on Ethereum whatsoever. And I'm talking from a blockchain transactions perspective. Polka dot is a layer zero. Polka dot interops with other chains as well. And it stands alone. It does its own thing. Cosmos is another one that's on its own. It does its own thing. Avalanche, I talked about. So this when Cytochain is announced and it's going to allegedly be a layer zero blockchain, the whole thought behind it is largely the way they describe it, interoperability with other blockchains, the ability to build and provide infrastructure for building apps on the chain. So it sounds ambitious, right? [00:26:06] When I looked at the contract on the Binance Smart chain side, I ran into Token Sniffer and I covered this on video. I ran through Token sniffer and. It seems to think that the person that wrote that contract at some level was associated with a scam. [00:26:20] So my point is, if you're in or were in or plan to be in Satama listening to me here, I can't tell you what to do with your money. I am telling you that Token Sniffer seems to think there's something wrong with the contract. [00:26:33] What I said on the video is it doesn't matter if you have all the best intentions in the world. It doesn't matter if that MK is or isn't a good dude. I don't know that he is. I know he acts like a child on social media. None of that really matters, though. If it turns out that the contract is somehow associated with somebody who happens to be a scammer, whether or not Satama team knows about it, it might have a risk from a liquidity pool or like the Kyber swap or some other risk where it gets hacked or breached or something else. And I would implore you that if you are going to get in it or you're in it or plan to be, I would implore you to be careful because we don't know what's going to happen. And if they don't resolve that with whatever it is Token Sniffer is seeing, it's a vulnerability and I would never recommend anybody get into it. That said, if you're a gambler, it's an opportunity to gamble. And that's about what it is right now, because the blockchain doesn't exist right now. Side of chain is on binance and ethereum. If and when they create a layer zero, which I have an open question about, but anybody can create a blockchain, but let's see what it is once that happens. Let's see what they do. [00:27:41] And maybe whatever issue is exclusive to the Binance smart chain contract, maybe there is no such issue. If they do get a layer zero and they deploy it on that chain, there's a lot of ifs there, right? It's a lot of conditions, a lot of supposition. I can't say what's going to happen. I'm simply saying please be careful and make sure there's food on your table. We're in for a rocky road, ladies and gentlemen, because although it is the Bull Run or at least the initial stages of, we're in for a bumpy road because we've got a lot of turmoil to fight past. There are people waiting to sell. There are people waiting to get out. There's people waiting to buy in, and they think right now is the right time, and there's a lot of money going to flow in, but there's going to be some people waiting to sell out. So you have to learn to read the graphs for yourself because I can't tell you how to read the graph for your own goal. People can tell you entry points, people can tell you exit points, people can tell you trouble spots, people can tell you trends, they can tell you all that, but it's still up to you. You might look at the same information and make a different decision about what you want to do, and that's perfectly acceptable. I'm no different in this. I can't tell you what to do. I can only tell you what I see. The big picture of all of this is we're headed for some bumpy waters, and so I think it's exciting, but it's also very dangerous and very risky, and people have already lost a lot of money, and I don't want to have anybody listening to my show end up one of those statistics. Let's keep it together and maybe know this next episode. I'll talk about this site on DFI, the Department of Financial Institutions, where they talked about all the different scams. I think it's funny, but it's not funny, but maybe I'll share that and talk about some of those stories that people have come through, and that may help discourage a little bit of the gambler spirit out there.

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