[00:00:01] Speaker A: Welcome to Crypto Talk Radio, the podcast for everyday investors like you. Visit us on the
[email protected] and now here's your host, Leister.
[00:00:13] Speaker B: Thank you for that, Bailey. And welcome, everybody out there in Crypto Talk radio,
[email protected] I fully understand that some believe it might be a nice day for a white wedding, but I would not recommend you step outside and anything white, especially with all the red that's flowing around in cryptocurrency. Folks, I want to share some thoughts as I always do, but it's different today. It's different today because I don't even follow it. And I'm kind of in and out because I'm on another path. I have a job. That's where money comes from and it does really well. And then I got precious metals. They're doing really well.
They're on recovery again. I'm not going to talk about it extensively today, only as part of the other larger conversation, but not extensively. I will be focusing on cryptocurrency will not be a long episode because everything I would share, you may or may not already know, but I suspect you already have inklings of a lot of it. Big news, I think, is around the chance that bitcoin could go even lower than the 65,000 mark. That's going to be, I think, the dominant part of my conversation.
And for those, some of them that don't understand how this works, what I'm sharing is a perspective. Perspective is to be analyzed and then make your own decision about the perspective, whether you believe it's true or not, and encouraged to go and listen to other perspectives and then make up your own mind. It's one perspective that I'm entitled to make. So I will make it my own way based on what I see. We're going to jump right in. We're going to have some fun.
Please don't. Please don't be upset. Trust me.
Coinmarketcap.com and as usual, you will zoom out to the month charts and we're going to start with bitcoin. The reason I'm starting with bitcoin is that it is the dominant topic for today. There are people out there who swear up and down that everything that we're seeing is perfectly normal and natural and part of the cycle. It very well may be the case that it's normal and natural and part of the cycle, but there are some chatter that what we're seeing is not over.
On last week's episode, I speculated that Bitcoin could go a little bit lower before going back up again.
When it started to jump and it got a little bit of a climb over the past week or so, people speculated that we were past the worst of it. It got as low as like 60 something, 61,000 bucks or something. It dipped ever brief and then it rebounded back up and then it got to like 71,000 or something. And people said, okay, the worst is behind us. We're going to go back up and it's just going to take some time. That seemed to be the case. But if you look at the month chart, you see a downward trend. Certainly you see the same thing I'm seeing to be the truth, which is a downward trend, no different than what I said last week, which was a downward trend.
A lot of the recovery that we saw did not sustain, largely because of some of the other factors I'm going to be discussing here momentarily. But more importantly, there's a lot of panic right now. A lot of it is panic selling. A lot of people are just reacting to what they see on the charts. It's not really any fundamental problem per se. Obviously the Clarity act being held up in Congress, as I speculated, was going to be, has a little bit part to play in it. But there's other macro level things that you may not have been aware of. The devaluation of the United States dollar normally should encourage some positive movement on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but that makes a lot of assumptions that are not panning out true. And I'll be talking about some of those a little bit later on. If we look at Ethereum then, and we zoom out to the month chart for Ethereum, it paints a very similar picture, that being a downward trend, not an upward trend. I didn't think it was going to go upward, but I did notice that Ethereum seems to be more stable in its downward trend than Bitcoin. Bitcoin strikes me that it's not past the worst of it and the selling is strong. Ethereum seems like the dumping, which was largely Idiot Vitalik, has stabilized and now some of the down is connected to the downward pressure of Bitcoin rather than anything fundamentally wrong with Ethereum itself. I can't say for sure, but that's what it's saying seems like, at least on the surface as I watched it. So big picture, I'm not going to talk about Salon and all the other ones because they're following what Bitcoin's doing. Any sort of, except for BNB I got to be clear.
BNB's price doesn't make any sense. I say it doesn't make any sense because bnb, there was a time BNB was in the double digits, okay? And then it got to a thousand dollars out of nowhere when nothing else was running nearly that hot. So I suspect that BNB might be a symptom of just overarching cooling off of the asset after running sedang hot for so long.
Not that anything's wrong, but just simply was overpriced. It just seemed like the price is artificially inflated. I don't know if it really was. I'm saying that's what it felt like. Cause it didn't make any sense to see it go as high as it did.
Let's spin back to bitcoin and talk a little bit more about this. Now people are talking about the levels, right? The level to target is 71,000 bucks. Ish.
People are saying we're headed that. That's why they were saying we're headed that way. Once it hits there, we're going to bounce and go back up.
Unfortunately, it seemed like a lot of rejections more than usual where people are seeing that it's not a normal sideways, you know, natural trend.
It seems like it's still a breakdown and that it's still fragile and that it's headed towards the $60,000 mark. People still say that now. They're still thinking that the worst is not over. And we got a lot more happening with the Bitcoin ETFs and outflows in particular that they're watching, they're speculating that the price is targeted to go down even further.
Some have said, and I don't know the, the veracity, look it up of these theories. But some have said that this may also be trying to flush out some of those bigger holders, that it's strategic, that they're purposely trying to get some of those bigger holders out of their positions to kind of flush them out to right size. The price of bitcoin, again, I can't say how true or legitimate or even logical that is in. In a conspiracy world, I can kind of see it. But there have to be a lot going on for that really to be the case. Is it possible it's the case? Abso fragging lutely. I just can't say for sure that it is or isn't. Meanwhile, people, smart people are buying dips. They're DCA dollar cost average into bitcoin buying more as the price goes down to increase their bag size. That's only effective if you didn't buy at the hundred thousand or higher. Let's say you bought in at, you know, 40,000 bucks back in 20, 20 or something.
You have an opportunity to kind of DCA and not have any sort of unrealized loss and still be in the positive while it's on the way down. Then you just gotta be careful about it. And then some people that are on the exchanges, obviously they're gambling, rolling the dice and who knows with those folks, but people expect that the 71,000 ish mark is kind of the target to reach and sustain and if it cannot sustain it, that it's headed back down with a target of about 60,000 bucks.
Now, in my mind, this is a theory.
In my mind I say downward is almost a given for the short term. I still say there's going to be a little bit of upward. So there's a downtrend. I'm saying that you're still going to have this fight going back up. I think it goes over 71. It just doesn't last. It's going to come right back down again. That's my theory and I encourage you to hold me accountable because I go audio. It's not a hard thing. It's just, this is my gut speaking about what I see.
The other thing affecting bitcoin, recently people noticed that a bunch of the whales in bitcoin, there was a, some whale put like an 80 million dollar long on Bitcoin and people speculated that it's ultimately a bullish sentiment. Right? That person believes there's something there. It actually could have the inverse effect. It actually could cause more downward to flush that person out and cause them to be liquidated. I don't know. I'm saying that when we see things like that, it doesn't necessarily guarantee that there's something positive. There's the insider from the Trump administration that had dumped before bitcoin started crashing. But recently people noticed other whales were putting a lot of money into cold storage.
Meanwhile, they're stacking. And what is putting it in the cold storage ultimately move ultimately mean? Well, two things. One, if you're putting bitcoin in the cold storage, it means you're just holding the line, right? You're weathering the storm, you're just waiting it out. If you're putting things like usdt, USDC into cold storage and kind of sitting on it, which is unlikely, it wouldn't make sense. But maybe you're doing that because you're waiting for the right price target and you know that there's no reason to leave it in the wallet. But again, there's no down either.
So my theory is they're just tossing bitcoin off into a cold wallet and sitting on it, which is what some of the lower, earlier investors did. They tossed it into, you know, dead storage and then it sat there for 13 years and all of a sudden it woke up and went crazy. So it's possible that we start seeing some sort of price shock happen due to some of these actions of the whales, where later there's going to be a sell events. What I'm getting at, that it gets over to a point, gets up to a point, and then there's a little bit of sell, not dump sell, but sell to recoup from losses. Especially if this goes for, let's say, another two months or something, I can anticipate that happening. I don't know if that's really going to happen, but I suspect it's possible. It's entirely plausible. The other thing that's kind of, I'll even say, infecting cryptocurrency. Right now there's chatter that banks in China are going to try, and I talked about this on an old, old, this is like a year maybe ago episode where there was chatter about some of the other world powers, China being one of them, moving away from dependence and connection to the United States dollar. How does that work? Well, at a simple level, we sell our debt to these other countries and those countries benefit from buying our debt. But at the same time, they're impacted by the devaluation of our currency when they do trade and when they do commerce and everything else and our currency's at play and it loses its value, it actually hurts them economically. And so they've been trying to decouple from dependence on the dollar. And one of those ways is to decouple from United States debt as one of those holding areas.
When we looked at, okay, what's really going on here, they're trying to get as much as far out as they can and get to where there's clean, let's say, transactional awareness about what's going on with all forms of fiat, and then isolate their own in favor of versus United States dollars as opposed to the inverse. That's currently the case.
Well, why does that matter?
Remember that ultimately bitcoin as currently traded, bought and sold and executed is done so by multiple forms of currency. It's done so by multiple different denominations of fiat. And by and large, the United States dollar is a strong reason for its current price level. The theory, and it's only a theory that's not vetted, is if you remove the United States, the weakness of the United States from the Bitcoin equation and calculation, it might actually realign the price of Bitcoin to what it really would be if you had a strong fiat backing it, which is estimated to be lower than what it is. Because remember, when you have significant money printed out there, you have inflation. When you have inflation, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies tend to be where some of that money goes. It just kind of goes over there and there's so much money there, so much is purchased, so much is transacted, it artificially inflates the price, creating somewhat of a bubble effect. The I'll say my own analogy to this is the housing bubble of 2008.
They weren't printing houses, obviously. They weren't printing money, obviously. But what they were doing is they were lowering the standards by which people got money. They made it easier to get money, which is the last barrier to wasteful spend. Then you get into asset backed securities. So you buy the debt. So these companies buy the debt. You lend a house to somebody knowing full damn well they can't pay it. You take the debt, you sell it. So when I say you, I'm talking about a bank. You sell the debt to these asset backed security holding companies. The holding companies are being enriched, buy the debt because there's interest and everything else. Well, what happens then? If that goes south and that person, you know, forecloses on the home, they fall behind because we knew they couldn't pay it. Right.
When a house is foreclosed, ultimately you're not getting money for the house, number one. Number two, the house's value goes down. Three, the area value is impacted. There's all, there's a, there's like a domino effect that goes on.
All of that triggered by ease of access to money. Because ease of access to money causes people to spend it. When people spend it, it actually stimulates the economy.
Which is what they were trying to do during the housing crisis was stimulate the economy and get more people buying. So they lessened all the guardrails. They had the right idea, but the wrong execution. When you ease access to money too much and you get too much out there, then there's demand and then they start printing.
They print and print and print and print to put more money out there, to encourage more of the spend. It's the wrong, it's the wrong solution, but that's what they do. This is very comparable in the idea that if you pair bitcoin to stronger fiat as opposed to the weakness of the United States dollar, that it could have an inverse effect, that it could bring Bitcoin's price down, down because it's stronger assets that are backing it and paired with it and it's not as readily available to people to be able to transact with it. All theory, no evidence whatsoever, but it's got people spooked. The theory being bantied about has got people a little bit nervous and that's contributing to some of the sell is the idea that what China is doing and because of what they're doing and who they are, they have the greatest probability of harming Bitcoin's price in the long term.
If their banks out there in China just start pulling back and pulling back and pulling back and pulling back and pulling back and then what happens? The United States can't offload that debt and all the money that they printed over the past couple years. It could have a significant impact on United States traders in particular.
I'd be curious to see what happens there because obviously we know Powell's going to be out of there, we know Trump's replacement is likely going to be dropping rates. Then we got to see, are we going to see another bubble? It's, it's going to be an interesting time because if there is something that happens again, then it's possible that you get another 20, 21, right where it drops to say, 30,000 bucks, which is what people estimated. And then all of a sudden there's this run because they drop rates to the nth. And then people start using their homes as ATM machines that they take the money, put it into these things and it starts spiking it again. It could be that simple or it could be that it's all fake and that it's not going to drop the price and we're all good, or that China can't pull back and nothing changes.
So what I'm saying to you, my call to action to you is to watch 2026 very carefully. If you don't follow the news, I suggest you do, because there's a lot happening that could change the face of what we know of as cryptocurrency in the long run. And I think it's a good thing. I think it's actually needed to kind of disrupt what's happening, give time for the Clarity act to get past the doors. I still think the Clarity act is A terrible bill but it's better than not having any and having a wall wall west to boot.
So long term is what you should focus on. But right now short term macro is going to impact the long term. So pay attention to all of it. End to end, balls to bones. It's going to impact whatever it is that you choose to do. In terms of trading strategies, again, DCA is probably the smartest trade strategy that you can do at the moment. If you have the ability to do it and you have the money to do it, I think it's going to be the smartest tactic right now.
I still say stick with the main coins, they cannot steer you wrong. And of course the meme coin or, and or altcoin market seems to be kind of dead. I think that's good, keeps you safe but you might see some garbage that's shield on social media or something and that whatever you do is up to you. I say keep the mains in in check, watch them, watch for those opportunities to buy in because again there's going to come a time everything's going to go back up again.
We don't know how long that is. So whatever money you do put in, make sure you're okay losing it for the short term because you're not going to get it back. I'm talking the recoup what you put in in the short term, not with what's going on right now. It's going to be a long road before we get back to that nirvana state.
In closing, I want to make a just a basic comment, just a really simple easy statement for those out there. I want to say thank you to some listeners. Not all, but some listeners.
When I say not all, I don't mean that I'm tack. I'm saying I'm thanking some listeners that they understand, okay? They understand that my voice is one of many. My voice may not be accurate so far I've not been significantly wrong about stuff, but my voice is one of many. And there's others out there that may have the right stuff as it says and that you should listen to multiple and make up your own mind. They understand, they get it. There are some listeners and I'm not sure why they're listeners but there's some listeners who have it in their mind that, that somebody can say something and then you can say but you're wrong.
No, we, we provide opinions. We share the opinions. It's up to you to take the opinion, do your own research. There is no right or wrong. The opinion is an opinion.
We can look at the opinion and provide the background, which is what I do.
Here's why I say what I'm saying. Here's where I'm getting it from. Here's what I think about it. You take that, make up your own mind with it. It's not about right or wrong. It is. This is one person's statement of what they're saying.
You need to take it and validate it yourself. That strengthens you. There was a study and then the guy that did the study went and talked in front of the Senate about the education system, which I've harped on, that our young kids, Gen Z specifically and greater, but Gen Z was what was targeted.
And essentially what he said was that Gen Z is dumber than Gen X. Because in my generation, some Gen X in my generation, we were reading physical books. We had computers. They were not the dominant for education at all. It was physical books. We had to read them. We had to sometimes recite what we read up in front of the class. We had to understand how to enunciate, look it up. We had to understand how to read material without pauses. If you notice how I speak, right? I don't say things like some girls are like, well, oh, like the. And all those pause words. I kind of just flow. That's practice. That takes time. It takes a lot of practice over many years to perfect the art. But it's very important because in order to captivate your audience, you should come across educated. We would think so. Now it's to my detriment because the young folks, again, this is the Gen Z I'm referring to, the young folks. I've had four times when people accuse me of being chatgpt pasted on something and I have to then share the link because there are services and they don't. They're too damn lazy to do it themselves. I have to share a link that shows them, no, this is 100% human. And I'll tell you why it's human. Because of the way I write and the way I speak, which is well educated. ChatGPT does not speak like a human. The people who are convinced that ChatGPT speaks like a human to the point that they take human writing and interpret it like chat GPT are too dumb to distinguish human speech versus AI folks. That's a dangerous thing and I'm forewarning you, please don't rely on any AI that rhymes. I'm encouraging you take what I'm doing. Okay, you can run my whole, My transcripts Out there. You can run audio, whatever and see. No, I'm straight up and straight on the line on the narrow 100% human born bread because I went through that. I went through the pain and punishment of the education system that it was.
And I understand that the younger generation never had the benefit of actually handling a physical typewriter. I understand that the younger generation never got to handle an actual floppy disk. I understand that the younger generation never had to recite from a book up in front of the class. I understand that the younger generation can just look up the periodic table and they didn't have to memorize all the different elements like I did. I understand it's a different era, but it's, it's so damaging and dangerous and frustrating and concerning to hear that you have somebody who just knows how to speak eloquently, look it up, and they're accused of being AI because they speak to them. Well, yes, it's somewhat of a badge of honor. But I'm distressed to hear that young folks can't distinguish, they can't tell the difference between a human and chatgpt unless you almost cussed there. Unless you screw up and misspell things or use LOL or whatever abbreviation like yeet. And that's the only way that they can think that you're a human is putting a bunch of garbage in there.
Or if somebody uses proper punctuation or somebody uses proper paragraphs or proper sentences or proper pauses that you're treated like AI. It's the, it's the most concerning thing I think I've ever seen, heard or experienced. But I, I see it and it's getting worse. It's again, I got it four times.
My impassioned plea to anybody listening out there. If you know young people who cannot tell the difference, help them understand the difference. It's actually very easy to see the difference between ChatGPT and somebody that's speaking. Somebody that's speaking is speaking to you. ChatGPT is speaking to the topic. That's how you tell. It's easy.
I say easy.
That assumes a proper education, which I'm told is no longer the case. That's why I'm asking you guys, because you're probably Gen X like me. You might be Gen Z, you might be, and you might be offended. I don't want you to be offended. I want you to be disgusted that your peers are embarrassing you. That's what I want from you. That rhymes. I want you to step up and say, no, we can be better. And yes, maybe Your friend or somebody that you know from college or somebody that you know on the neighborhood or somebody else, and you're like, I know that idiot that he's talking about where they can't tell the difference. But I do it and I kind of just handle my own business.
I applaud you. Right. I'm encouraging everybody. I don't care what age you are. I encourage everybody. If you have or know that person who cannot tell the difference between ChatGPT and a human, please encourage them. Check my, Check my. Show out CryptoTalk FM. Have them listen so they can understand what a human sounds like, so they can understand what normal natural speech sounds like, so they can sound, hear, hear for themselves and then go and listen to anything else and you can clearly tell the difference. Sit them down and make them do it.
Because I'm worried. I'm worried for the future. I'm worried for the next generation. Because no matter what happens with cryptocurrency, what good is it if the people can't even handle their own finances? Then you got to rely on the government who's just going to screw you.
Learn to do for yourself. It starts with a good education. And I understand some of that's out of your hands, right? Poor teachers, poor class, poor curriculum. I get it. Force yourself. Force yourself to be better.
Force yourself to do better. Understand the way it works. Because I don't want to see something like crypto like this. And you don't know what to do about it because you're never told because you're too busy being inundated by a bunch of garbage AI that tells you the wrong answers all the time. I know the game and I don't want you to fall for that. And that's me trying to look out for again, those people who listen to the show who don't get it. I'm. I'm reaching to you guys, you know. Stop, please. It's. It's frustrating. It really is. It's frustrating. And I don't want to see anybody get jacked up by an AI based future. If you're going to rely on crypto to be the future, I worry for all of you. I'll be long gone by the time that all hits the fan, but I wanted to put something out to at least say the words and hopefully enough people hear it and spread the message.
Sam.
