Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Out of Cycle Update.
[00:00:03] Occam's Razor was never more appropriate than now. CryptoTalk FM. My name is Leister, I'm your host.
[00:00:09] Bitcoin and the larger cryptocurrency market in addition to the wider market. It's all in red and people are clamoring for information and explanation to something that is cyclical. Number one, number two, people that do daily coverage, you might notice some of them flip flop. You might notice that on day one, they're bullish. When I say bullish for them, I'm talking about this notion of $1 million Bitcoin that you've heard, I'm sure you've heard it. I know you've heard it. You might have heard people like Da Vinci, Jeremy, who told you that bitcoin's going to be the future, whether he's right or wrong. He's been reasonably consistent up to the point and then all of a sudden it's buy silver. I'm selling the Maybach and everything. Now, mind you, some of those are trigger headlines designed to just get you clicks. So part of my, I don't want to say frustration, but my consternation, look it up with people online has always been their flip flop. I don't even talk flip flop a message. I talk flip flop of response to message, reaction to message, treatment of message.
[00:01:17] You know that you're being triggered by the headline, yet you fall in anyway.
[00:01:21] Certain people that I will not name fall for a marketing strategy for a token that tells them it's going to do something with no fundamentals, it's going to do it. And that's happened so many times, I've lost count.
[00:01:33] It's a persistent pattern that it's. Again, consternation I get. It's disgusting, really, because then you have the other side and this is. I'm in this group and there's slim few of us. I'm going to give a shout out on an ongoing basis, by the way, on our main channel coverage, Crypto talk, that fm, when we do larger episodes, I'm going to be doing on an ongoing basis. I want to encourage him to continue what he's doing the way he's doing.
[00:02:01] And I want to give him that shout out because he seems to be one of the slim few who did the right thing, which is that they held the course, they were consistent in message, did not fall for jokes as some others did. So I'm giving this person a shout out and I would like you to check out their channel scam alert HQ by Fetra F E T R A on YouTube. I'll put the link in the comments and the notes down below.
[00:02:31] Scam Alert HQ by Petra Check out his channel recently he was doing coverage about one specific topic but if you actually listen to what he's doing he goes in depth about these flags and if you look at the pattern, he's very consistent in that pattern. He has done a masterful job in my opinion, breaking down the why of things without falling for jokes as some others did. So I'm giving that shout out and again my pre roll for the larger episode is going to include that shout out because I want more and newer listeners to check out his channel. It's a smaller channel. He's not a chill hypes or anything. Very grounded, neutral. I understand some of you like the rah rah, you like the cheerleader and you like the group think this isn't for you. This is for the people that are actually trying to learn. They're actually trying to learn the right way to do stuff, the right way not to do stuff. And they're willing to listen to people who are telling the why and they're consistent and most importantly they are consistently attacked because some of the other ones that fell for jokes are no longer consistently attacked. They get attacked but not as consistently and that's because they fell for jokes. So Scam Alert HQ by Fetra Definitely check out his channel now. Bitcoin. Back to the subject at hand.
[00:03:52] I am, I said I'm not following crypto that close. I'm watching the price and I'm watching the freakouts and I'm, I am getting a laugh at it simply because I have said for months it's like cryptocurrency feels a little bit too centralized for my taste and that's why I kind of stepped back and said I'm not going to get in, I'm not going to follow it, I'll talk about it because people want to hear but I'm not going to be going. And I said a lot of these YouTubers out there are just rah rah that I don't understand because I don't see that fundamental. Then there was all these attacks on precious metals separately around this. In all fair disclosure, I did buy a little bit more, a little bit more on the precious metals. These are the gold backs. Shout out to gold backs. Amazing. I got the Washington D.C. which are rare, they only are printing. I think it's 250000 of them total. So I bought like 20 of them. Just put them in a, put them in the vault with all my other stuff. Because at some point, like I look at them as collectibles, not the metal content. Even though the metal content is legit, I look at them as collectibles. I look at them as, there's going to be some market for this. So I kind of spun my investment over to there while waiting for more price drops. Gold, $4,900 right now and silver 75 just shy of 76 means potentially a buying opportunity. And if I were going to buy, damn sure isn't going to be crypto, it would be on the precious metals. You're like, why would you not buy into crypto off these dips? Because in my mind, A, the manufactured price movement, B, the dip doesn't feel complete. From my lens, I could get that way off.
[00:05:36] But I said in my last earlier this week, it felt like we weren't, this is going to take a while and we were going to have some time down.
[00:05:44] Contrary to others telling you it was going to go up, there's people out there even now that swear up and down that this is going to be the bottom. You know, it hits $60,000 overnight. Course overnight. Right.
[00:05:57] Rebounded up to 6,66,000 as I record this. And so then people are like, okay, we're at the bottom, we're going to go back up.
[00:06:04] Let's say that we do. I don't think we are, but let's say that we do.
[00:06:08] The journey back up is going to be arduous. Look it up. But more importantly, we, we have to also understand what institutional would do in this because there's a lot of like, idiot Vitalik, he was dumping Ethereum, GameStop allegedly was dumping stuff. People were claiming that all these companies had completely sold off assets and then the ETFs had outflows. So that's gonna take a long time to build back up. Now it's possible that there's just some major, major in shift on that. And then it, as I was watching people chat about, it's, it got to the point where clearly people don't understand what's happening. Either that or they don't believe. I said with DaVinci Germany, he was criticizing precious metals at a point because he said, yeah, but you still got the paper going on. He's not wrong. But what he's missing is that that same thing is happening with Bitcoin in particular, certainly, but surely the other ones, Ethereum now, but Bitcoin in particular, everybody keeps harping on the Constrained supply. There's only 21 million. There won't be any more because this is a lack of understanding about how this paper process works. I broke it down in my other episode, full episode, and people still don't understand. They don't. Either they don't understand or they don't believe because it's obvious what's happening and that's what's causing the price manipulation and heavy shift.
[00:07:31] I've been saying that for the longest time as the reason I don't commit into crypto like I once did. You know, 2021, we hit the prices we were at in 2021. At 2021's pricing, we had that jump, right? And it's significant climbs. Get to $65,000, everybody's cheering and all that stuff, okay? And then we leap up. We don't have any sort of significant run, and then we're right back down again. And it's this up and down, but there it's volatile. It's a significant explosive move when these happen. Not the subtle that you might expect, which is why I said it's just the same as any other type of asset. Now they're being. They're being influenced by the way that the big money players want to trade, which is paper, essentially.
[00:08:18] And people don't understand when we say paper, we're saying all of these assets that are being created to enable trade off of prices that are artificial. Right? You're basically gambling that the price really should do this and I'll put some gambling tickets out there. And that's what you're basically buying into. They can print as much as they wanted that it's not even about the money. It's about if you're allowed to trade off of a potential price. How is that any different than what's happening with precious metals or any other asset class? It's not. That's. That means that crypto, because people got greedy. Instead of what we were talking about with Mr. Sagala ages ago, people got greedy. And now you're going to see these influences on an ongoing basis. It just so happens that it takes a long time for that to come to fruition. But when you have like strategy and all these other ones buying big bags of the stuff and then more bags are tossed into the ETFs. The ETFs now hold you by the balls because that means they can liquidate as they, as they see fit. And you got the paper trading on the side. You're going to continually see these type shifts and there's people who say, okay, well I'll just keep stacking dips and that's great but you have to understand what's ultimately going on because if you don't, you're just going to get smashed and freaked out every single time this happens.
[00:09:39] A commenter on CoinMarketCap this is my close on CoinMarketCap broke it down in a very good way and I'm going to give a shout out names Crypto zero and I'm not going to read. I want you to go to if you care to learn. I want you to go to coinmarketcap.com go to the Bitcoin area and go to their community and Crypto zeros is near the top because his post is highly rated and it's a very good post. It's, it's honest. I'm going to summarize essentially what he's saying. It's basically what I was talking about, which is that it's heavily centralized overall, but then there's all these non tangible trading activities that are influencing its price. But the bottom line of what he's saying is when you have synthetic supply. So synthetic supply is this paper we're talking about. It's all this trading that's happening not with the asset itself, but based on the price and you know, gambling tickets concept.
[00:10:34] When the supply of that exceeds the real supply, then the price of those assets is no longer reflective of the value of the underlying assets. So it doesn't matter that you have a constrained supply because they're trading on the paper side, they're trading off of assumed pricing. Then liquidations occur. The liquidations are what trigger these shifts.
[00:10:57] People have to be made whole. If you have to have the asset available in order to make it whole, because it's somebody wants it at a certain price point, the liquidations have to happen. You have to take it because they gambled. Right?
[00:11:09] Well, the shit. The problem is that people keep assuming because they're in the bubble, the crypto bubble, they keep assuming that the price of bitcoin that you see is directly correlated to its scarcity. That rhymes. It's not. The price you see is assumptive. I did an episode a while ago where I said there's no real fundamental to bitcoin whatsoever right now. Its price is based on what people hype it to be, not that there's a fundamental background to that price.
[00:11:38] So when you have this paper trading that's happening that's shifting the price up and down at a rapid rate, there's a sentiment component to it people buy or sell in reaction to the price movement, which is, that's the influence we're talking about.
[00:11:52] And the manipulation, how's that any different than any other asset class? The scarcity has nothing to do with it. It has zero, all to do with it. What's really happening is at the end of the day, rich people, rich mother fathers who don't need the money, but they want the money.
[00:12:10] They don't need the money, but they are just going to take it because it's there. Because there's unfortunately gullible people who fall for the trap and they know that's there. As with every other asset class, since time immemorial, this has been a thing where they influenced the market to drain. It's like a liquidity drain from those people who don't have the constitution to step back and say, I'm going to hold the line or I'm going to sell at the right time or I'm going to buy at the right time. I'm going to be smart about it. I'm going to diversify. They're counting on you not to be smart about this. I had somebody say, well, this seems to keep going down. What is its bottom? Let me just be clear and I'm in audio so you can hold me accountable. CryptoTalk FM. Hit the contact form if you have questions or you'd like to kind of come at me. But here's the thing.
[00:13:01] Bitcoins and measure me against anybody else out there, okay? Time will be my witness.
[00:13:08] Bitcoin's bottom is $0. I said that. You won't hear others say that. Bitcoin's bottom is $0.
[00:13:17] Why is it $0?
[00:13:19] Because there's nothing backing its price other than hype drop driven sentiment. That's all that's driving bitcoin's price is the sentiment in the business. You're like, how's that different than gold? Because at the time of the gold rush, you had a physical asset that had perspective that, okay, I want that. You know, you're talking kings and stuff where they're saying, I want that, I want that.
[00:13:45] Nobody really wants bitcoin. They want the money that people are trading it for. They don't want bitcoin. Nobody wants the token. Nobody cares about what's on the chain. They want the money being traded. That's a sentiment driven, hype driven methodology, no different than Emperor's New Clothes. There is nothing behind it. Bitcoin's bottom is zero. However, because there are so many people in the bubble, the Hopium, the ones like DaVinci, Jeremy, who just held out hope and they said, someday it's going to be something. That means it's got an inherent floor to it where it's unlikely to ever go back to true zero. It's always going to be traded for some value.
[00:14:26] People have estimated that that true value layer is about $30,000. Now, if you think about it, I showed at one point in the past that there are these points in the graph that are outliers. Outliers, meaning that they shouldn't even be on the graph. If you really, if you're really honest, they really shouldn't be on there.
[00:14:45] If you were looking at what's referred to as the logarithmic graph, you can see a much cleaner growth pattern. The price doesn't change, but the growth pattern is a lot more logical than what you see on the normal graph. And what the story is on this is that a lot of these spikes that we see in price, their influence, their manipulation, designed to drive the price higher and higher and higher, that can only be happening by those rich mother fathers I referred to who are trying to drain liquidity out by providing enticement for you to FOMO in off that green candle. I'm not saying you do or don't. I'm saying that you have to understand what's really happening and you have to understand. Bitcoin's true bottom is zero because it doesn't do anything. You might believe in it as an asset class such that you are one that wants to help hold its line and you are one that wants to have it as part of a diverse portfolio. Nothing is wrong with that. What's wrong is when you tell me that this is a fundamental asset or that it's the quote, digital gold, like that hippie on Dun and Bradstreet said, or some other weird name that doesn't have any sort of fundamentals whatsoever. There's no equivalency at all. There's no equivalency to bitcoin, to fiat, other than the fact we trade it for fiat. It has no other equivalency. It does not right now have that substantive value because there's nothing behind it at this point. They want something to be behind it. They want it to be used in those ways. They want governments to use it as a reserve back in lieu of using fiat because they're trying to essentially offset the damage to fiat. Fiat is still dependent out there. It's always going to be, regardless of what people tell you on YouTube. It's always going to be because it's too intertwined with the way that we do business and the way that we live.
[00:16:38] So in summary, what this person crypto0 said is perfectly appropriate and I encourage you to read it and absorb it and understand what's really happening. You have to let go of the scarcity narrative, assuming that it's driving the price. It's not driving the price. All that's driving the price is hype, sentiment, media. That's what's driving its price. That's all that's there. What is its true volume? Bottom it's zero.
[00:17:06] Is it likely to go to zero? No, because there's still a layer of people, like a foundation of a house. There's still a layer of people who are in the crypto bubble and they believe it should be something someday and they're not going to let it go. So is it going to hit zero? No, I'm saying that's its true. Bottom. That means you can never count. You're never going to get to this world where Bitcoin doesn't go down. That's the other flaw. People assuming Bitcoin at some point is just not going to go down. So let's say it does hit a million dollars. I guarantee you ain't going to stay there that long. I guarantee you it won't. People are going to sell because that's the way it works and when they sell it's going to go down and liquidations will always happen because so called Wall street has gotten intertwined with the business to where you no longer can perfectly predict what's happening. There were people on YouTube swearing, you know, I thought this was going to go up and I didn't see this happening. I certainly didn't see it as bad. Of course you didn't because that's crypto bubble. Just reading the graph and not taking into consideration all the influence that's happening from the rich mother fathers to tell you you can use the graph guidelines as a starting point. You always have to caveat with the fact that hey look, there's all sorts of other stuff happening. This is no different this than the paper printing. It's no different because they're already, it's already embedded in there with the ETFs and the options trading and putting in the 401ks. All that stuff dilutes the product.
[00:18:30] It dilutes the product. When I say dilutes the product, I don't suppose that it impacts the product negatively until it does. I'M saying that it's an artificial price climb that the media tells you, okay, it's on this etf and now it's on this over here, now it's on that. And media tells you now's the time to get in because that's what it's going to be. And they're not wrong for that point. Right? Okay, for now we're going to go and get into this and it's going to have some appreciation. I'm saying that when those paper asset class types, when they start stepping up and then all of a sudden they got to be made whole and so money needs to be gotten somehow. They're going to come after the ETFs and the options and all those to make it whole, they're going to drain those assets. That's what you're seeing. You're seeing that this is being used to make other asset classes whole. And it's going to continue to be that. You're never going to have this pie in the sky of Bitcoin replacing Fiat. I'm on record. Hold me.
[00:19:30] This is not a call to action. It's to try to implore you to try to understand what DaVinci survey said is wrong. It's fundamentally wrong.
[00:19:39] Cryptocurrency, especially bitcoin right now, the way it's being treated by the rich mother fathers is no different. It's no different than silver, no different than Fiat. They're just trading off of price targets. They're gambling irrespective of the supply. There will be those crunches, as in somebody wants the actual asset.
[00:20:04] But we don't have critical mass of people who want the underlying asset. We have critical mass of people who want to trade on its price.
[00:20:12] And as long as we have that critical mass of people who just want to trade on its price, this will keep happening and you'll keep on freaking out over and over again until you get a clue.
