[00:00:01] Speaker A: Welcome to Crypto Talk Radio, the podcast for everyday investors like you. Visit us on the
[email protected] and now here's your host, Leister.
[00:00:13] Speaker B: Thank you for that, Bailey. And welcome everybody out there in Crypto Talk radio
[email protected]. what's all the fuss? What's all the panic?
[00:00:21] Speaker C: What's all the freak out? What's all the illogical reaction in cryptocurrency causing major price disruptions across the board? I actually was watching Lives earlier where.
[00:00:31] Speaker B: People were praising, they were going up a deep, deep. And of course I dial in in.
[00:00:35] Speaker C: The evenings, you know.
[00:00:36] Speaker B: Cause I think that dust has died down and you know, the Internationals died down and the United States is a little bit calmer and we get a.
[00:00:43] Speaker C: Better picture what's going on.
[00:00:45] Speaker B: Instead of trying to do it in the early morning when people are just waking up and folgers in their cup, they start dumping crypto. Well, cryptocurrency did take a dump. I'll talk about that here shortly and I'll talk about what I saw and what the obvious the bear in the.
[00:01:00] Speaker C: Room was with respect to the cause of the dumps that we saw.
[00:01:04] Speaker B: So I'll be chatting about that. I'm also going to be chatting about some of these other things spinning around in the crypto sphere. Nothing overly specific. This may be a short episode, but I wanted to make sure I tackle all the bullets.
[00:01:17] Speaker C: I had a small personal update.
[00:01:19] Speaker B: It's not anything related to crypto, but I played Dynasty Wars Origins. And if you'd not, if you're a fan or were a fan of Dynasty.
[00:01:28] Speaker C: Warriors or Samurai warriors or Warriors Orochi.
[00:01:30] Speaker B: Or Gundam warriors or any of those Hyrule War anything. It doesn't matter if you're a fan or have been a fan of one of those.
[00:01:38] Speaker C: I do recommend, highly recommend, Dynasty Warriors Origins.
[00:01:42] Speaker B: It's a different type of thing.
[00:01:44] Speaker C: You're not going to go in there.
[00:01:45] Speaker B: Picking whoever character you want and decimating the battlefield. No, they took and they revamped it from the ground up.
[00:01:52] Speaker C: You're one person living his story.
[00:01:56] Speaker B: And the thing is, you're essentially like a assassin type character and you're interfering quote in the history and you're steering things a certain way and you do meet all the historical characters. The point is there's one character you play. It's not about the characters though.
[00:02:12] Speaker C: The story's still on point. There's some liberties they took.
[00:02:15] Speaker B: But it's the fighting, it's the battle engine. It's top notch. It's upper crust, the difficulties, upper crust, the number of enemies on screens, upper crust, the speed of combat, defense, everything. Highly recommend Dynasty Wars Origins if you are one of those gamer or you have young folks that are gamers or whatever that is.
I just started Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth aka episode Sephiroth.
[00:02:39] Speaker C: I had played the demo because I.
[00:02:41] Speaker B: Have a PS5, but it's sitting in a box now because it's garbage. But I played the demo and I'm at the point of the demo, so I already know what this is about. But I was trying to give it a chance since I got it for like 30 bucks. No, don't ask me how I got it.
[00:02:54] Speaker C: 30 bucks.
[00:02:54] Speaker B: I'm not going you on PC. But I got her 30 bucks and I've been deciding to go through that one since I beat the other one and all this freaking, you know, censorship. DEI got me thinking, you know, I'll. I can't recommend that one. But it got me thinking, the dei, you know, because the government just came out and they killed off DEI and the feds and great. I think it's fantastic. Now we need to see the private sector, we need to see local government, state, everything.
[00:03:22] Speaker C: Get rid of dei.
[00:03:23] Speaker B: I saw hiring things where they ask about diversity, inclusion. I'm like, dude, this is not what you should be assessing people on. You should be assessing people on their ability to do the fucking job, regardless of their skin, regardless of their race.
[00:03:36] Speaker C: Regardless of creed, color, him, nor her. You should grade them on the ability.
[00:03:40] Speaker B: To do the job. This is such a foreign concept. When I'm talking to people, it's frustrating because I'm explaining, this is easy. You hire somebody that has raw potential, you mentor them up to what you.
[00:03:51] Speaker C: Need to do, and you hold them.
[00:03:52] Speaker B: Accountable to deliver work. Like you hear me describe that, you're like, yeah, obviously that ain't the way people work out here. And I don't know what the heck happened.
[00:04:00] Speaker C: I don't know what changed in the.
[00:04:02] Speaker B: Workplace because when I was coming up, I had people running out. We literally had people running out screaming because of how tough the bosses were.
[00:04:09] Speaker C: And everybody's soft S A W F T these days.
[00:04:12] Speaker B: And it pisses me off to no end. So I'm glad to see DEI get.
[00:04:16] Speaker C: The hell out of here.
[00:04:17] Speaker B: Let's get back to some basic fundamentals and hopefully that means for you, you'll.
[00:04:20] Speaker C: Be able to work with some competent.
[00:04:22] Speaker B: People instead of those numb nuts that are you surrounded with. Now, if you're one of those numb nuts flipping on your phone. I can't help you, but I am just venting a little bit. I'm happy about the DEI dying out, so that's a great thing. I also, I've been critical of AI. AI is going to dominate part of my conversation here on Crypto because a lot of that contributed to some of the dumps. And I don't understand it.
[00:04:44] Speaker C: I know what they're doing.
[00:04:45] Speaker B: I don't understand the logic. It makes no sense to me. But I know what they're doing. I just think it's stupid. So I'm gonna take a stab at what I saw, share my thoughts, kind of go from there. Meanwhile, I'm not going to share any recommendations, I don't think this time, because it feels like I'll.
[00:05:03] Speaker C: I will tell you about one thing.
[00:05:05] Speaker B: But generally speaking, I'm going to hold back recommendations because I think there's a little bit of smoke, you know, as in fake news, behind some of what's happening here. And I'll try my best to distill what I believe is true and what I believe is not.
Man, it's hot. CoinDesk.com and we're going to zoom out to the month chart and we're going.
[00:05:30] Speaker C: To start with Bitcoin.
[00:05:31] Speaker B: And I know you don't want to start with Bitcoin because Bitcoin took a bit of a dump, but we have to talk about Bitcoin because I think it's important for the crux of the conversation as well as some of the things that were brought to light here over the past 24 hours. A little 100,000 bucks, a high 103, just shy of 104. Currently hovering about the 101,000 with a downward trend, a slight downward trend.
[00:05:52] Speaker C: Some analysts came out and claimed that.
[00:05:54] Speaker B: We'Re going to crap, that Bitcoin's going to crap and it's going to go.
[00:05:57] Speaker C: All the way down to the 70s.
[00:05:58] Speaker B: You might be like, why that deep? A number of different factors. Macroeconomics playing in this AI nonsense, playing in Mt. Gox cells coming in. There's a lot of different things that are coming in that are saying that.
[00:06:11] Speaker C: This is what's likely to happen is.
[00:06:13] Speaker B: A dump down to seventy thousands range and then a climb back up to, you know, 200,000 range.
[00:06:18] Speaker C: If you listen for a while, you.
[00:06:20] Speaker B: Heard me say I figured 80 or something felt right. I just didn't know when I didn't know what. And that was based on Ethereum not moving. Ethereum got it even worse because Ethereum over the past 24 hours, $3,000 at.
[00:06:32] Speaker C: A low high of 3,200.
[00:06:34] Speaker B: Currently at the, you know, just shy of 3,100 with a strong downward trend.
And, you know, I think there's more happening than even I expected. I think it's worse than even I expected. And I, I saw some of the news and the chatter. I just think there was more to it than what they're saying. That's what I want to try to cover here shortly. First of all, let's get the bear in the room out of the way.
You may or may, if you're not following, kudos to you.
[00:07:01] Speaker C: And if you're new, welcome.
[00:07:02] Speaker B: But if you heard chatterings, different analysts giving their opinion, the big thing that stood out was this deep seek. And you might be trying to figure out what the heck is deep seek.
Deep Seek is an AI that was created out of China. And because it was created, because of the way it was created and what.
[00:07:23] Speaker C: Resulted in its creation, as a result.
[00:07:26] Speaker B: People are freaking out, not because anything's wrong, but because they're, they're, it's basically the United States thinking that this is basically going to completely shift profit potential.
[00:07:38] Speaker C: For the United States.
[00:07:39] Speaker B: Companies that are doing AI because allegedly.
[00:07:43] Speaker C: None of this is proven in China.
[00:07:46] Speaker B: They were making statements that the price.
[00:07:48] Speaker C: For them to create this deep seat.
[00:07:50] Speaker B: Was a, was pennies on the dollar compared to other models like OpenAI, that and Chat, GPT and others. So the thought was, well, that means China is beating us, which is of course, what President Donald Trump said was going to happen if we weren't careful. And so that caused everything, not just crypto, but also on the stock side, to tank like Nvidia, which is largely leading for AI, the messaging that is just significantly more expensive for us to.
[00:08:16] Speaker C: Do our AI and look how long it took.
[00:08:18] Speaker B: And then China spins it up for pennies on the dollar, allegedly, which might.
[00:08:23] Speaker C: Make them beat us to the race.
[00:08:26] Speaker B: That's, that's what's causing the sentiment shift. It's not even a global thing. It's really the United States. This is the fickleness of the United States economy. And the reason, when we coupled cryptocurrency.
[00:08:38] Speaker C: To the larger economy, why we basically.
[00:08:40] Speaker B: Gut ourselves because now people are just.
[00:08:43] Speaker C: Freaking out over silly stuff. It's silly to be freaking out, not.
[00:08:46] Speaker B: Because it's wrong, but because it's AI. Like, who the hell cares?
[00:08:51] Speaker C: You should price based on perceived value.
[00:08:54] Speaker B: Of this particular asset.
[00:08:55] Speaker C: Cryptocurrency itself.
[00:08:56] Speaker B: Bitcoin. Bitcoin has nothing to do with AI.
[00:09:00] Speaker C: But Bitcoin is tethered to other types of assets.
[00:09:03] Speaker B: The other types of assets may or may not be tethered to AI.
[00:09:07] Speaker C: The crap of AI impacts that price movement.
[00:09:10] Speaker B: So it's not even that cryptocurrency is suffering directly. It's being gutted because of the sentiment.
[00:09:17] Speaker C: Nonsense on AI, simply because it's linked.
[00:09:19] Speaker B: To a different asset that happens to be linked to Bitcoin.
So then the long play is, well, if as we see Bitcoin keeps crapping down, it's going to affect all the different altcoins and all the different garbage bull coins and everything else, and we'll.
[00:09:32] Speaker C: Have another crypto crash or crypto winter, not in winter.
[00:09:36] Speaker B: I think that's a good thing because it gives opportunity for people to buy in that could not before.
[00:09:42] Speaker C: I'm simply critical of the reasoning. If it truly, if it's truly because.
[00:09:46] Speaker B: Of this deep sink being pennies on.
[00:09:49] Speaker C: The dollar, who the hell cares?
[00:09:50] Speaker B: It's just fucking AI. Like the cryptocurrency price should stand alone and be independent. That it cannot be.
[00:09:57] Speaker C: And the warning to you and the.
[00:09:58] Speaker B: Reason I call it a casino is.
[00:10:01] Speaker C: You have to realize that there's more in play than just is it a scam or not?
[00:10:05] Speaker B: Or is it this or that.
[00:10:07] Speaker C: Now you have to contend with this.
[00:10:09] Speaker B: Nonsense where all this garbage is happening.
[00:10:11] Speaker C: That disrupts the price, where it should.
[00:10:13] Speaker B: Be a much easier thing to deal with and it cannot do because of this nonsense. So I think big picture it's fine, but you have to wrap your head around disruptive factors that are going to affect the price in an unexpected way. And that's what we're seeing alleged deep seat potentially with China overcoming and surpassing us. And that basically embarrasses the US that's all it is. That's all that people are freaking out about.
So we also want to look at.
[00:10:45] Speaker C: Other macroeconomic factors that may be contributing.
[00:10:49] Speaker B: To further price down, because this drop.
[00:10:53] Speaker C: Is simply because of that news.
[00:10:55] Speaker B: But that's only one step of what some people think is a larger down that's impending.
When that's going to come, nobody knows. But chatter came out from Arthur Hayes who claimed that bitcoin was going to dip to 70,000 bucks.
[00:11:10] Speaker C: Ish range 70, $75,000.
[00:11:12] Speaker B: The Arthur Hayes used to be the CEO of BitMEX, one of those exchanges, and he's calling out a number of different things, most notably the feds and what they're doing, as well as other negative sentiment items and Trey Trump type things. So you know all the stuff he's doing overseas with the tariffs and all that, that he believes that it's going to trigger kind of this domino effect of sell off that may cause a significant drop. But he does, he is confident it will bring it all back up. He just thinks that our position right now is not as strong as he.
[00:11:44] Speaker C: Thinks that it should be.
[00:11:46] Speaker B: Quote, a pullback of this magnitude will be ugly. I think we're more likely to go down to 70 to 75,000 bitcoin, then go back up to 25, 250,000 by the end of the year that it continued grinding higher with no material pullback. In other words, you're not going to.
[00:12:00] Speaker C: Keep climbing, climbing, climbing, and we're due for a drop.
[00:12:03] Speaker B: And he thinks it's going to be a more significant drop than it normally would be because of all these other factors that are getting in the way.
[00:12:10] Speaker C: And in his mind, there's not enough.
[00:12:13] Speaker B: Momentum to avert what he sees coming. Now, the thing I don't like about this is that everybody is running with this guy's prediction as if it's gospel. He's been negative on bitcoin for years and yet he's been wrong. It's like he'll have his moment of right, but then eventually ends up wrong.
[00:12:29] Speaker C: And I speculate, tinfoil though I might.
[00:12:31] Speaker B: Be, he's saying it to trigger people to sell off. I trig, I, I theorize that's what it is. Nobody disagrees that bitcoins due for a drop.
[00:12:41] Speaker C: The question is why? Why 70? Right.
[00:12:43] Speaker B: And he's reading charts and everything.
But we've also had their spitballing. They're throwing a guess. They don't really know for sure. It's all a guess. So I am gonna say I do think bitcoin's due for a drop.
I do think somewhere around the 80s range, as I said before. Do I think it goes to those 70? I don't, but maybe it does, but I, I don't think so. I think 80s is more appropriate. And that seems like a large drop, but it's not because it, I think it's gonna recover quick. And I'm gonna guess somewhere about the middle of the year. This is all me just kind of spitballing as well. We all do that, right? We spitball. And mine is just based on sentiment.
[00:13:20] Speaker C: As well as all these other disruptive factors I just got done talking about.
[00:13:23] Speaker B: And I think there's a lack of real killer apps out there. And without killer apps, you don't have strong sentiment coming in.
[00:13:31] Speaker C: Everything's Just a garbage bull coin getting.
[00:13:33] Speaker B: Spun up on Pump Fun and nothing's.
[00:13:35] Speaker C: There'S nothing substantive is my point.
[00:13:38] Speaker B: Speaking of killer apps, Sui Blockchain is released an SMS feature. Sms, of course, is the text message.
[00:13:46] Speaker C: Protocol that's on your mobile device.
[00:13:48] Speaker B: What they're talking about doing is to.
[00:13:50] Speaker C: Allow transactions on Sweetchain using SMS messages.
[00:13:56] Speaker B: I am anti sms.
SMS is a, it's, it's not a secure protocol, it never has been. And I'm not a fan of leaning into it the way that we're doing, although I understand what they're trying to do, which is to get away from the insanity of public keys and private.
[00:14:17] Speaker C: Keys and dapps and all that garbage.
[00:14:19] Speaker B: And I, I'm, I understand, I, I, I'm not against the concept of a simple message something. I want them to create a new protocol that is actually secure and it's.
[00:14:32] Speaker C: Designed for this and it does not.
[00:14:33] Speaker B: Require a mobile phone if you meet those three standards. And oh, by the way, email is that.
[00:14:38] Speaker C: But ideally you meet those three standards.
[00:14:41] Speaker B: It does not require a phone, it's actually secure.
[00:14:44] Speaker C: Right.
[00:14:45] Speaker B: And it achieves the same objective. I would be all for it. I'm not a fan of anything that's.
[00:14:50] Speaker C: Forcing mobile phones or Russian and mobile phones.
[00:14:52] Speaker B: I'm not a fan of using a protocol that is not secure and has never been secure. And there's no intent of being it secure. I don't support that.
[00:15:00] Speaker C: It would be like, and I actually.
[00:15:01] Speaker B: Thought about doing this, it would be like trying to set up blockchain transactions using icq. And I know some of you too young to understand icq. Icq, it's, it's the great grandfather of what you know as Telescam. That's essentially what it is. ICQ was not really secure, right? It wasn't built for that.
[00:15:22] Speaker C: It was built for basic communications.
[00:15:23] Speaker B: It was not built for these type of secure transactions. And so I, I'm not against secure something that is quick and lightweight and efficient. I'm just against trying to push the SMS because it was never built for that crap.
[00:15:38] Speaker C: Now let me share my thoughts on.
[00:15:41] Speaker B: This whole, you know, AI and all this, right?
Deep sea. So China, you heard Trump. China, China's going to beat us. You heard Trump, so you know that his bias is against anything China.
You also know that the United States economy, we have never really been, I shouldn't say never. We have infrequently been the leader.
[00:16:06] Speaker C: Often we're the follower.
[00:16:08] Speaker B: It was in a past generation that we were the leaders, right?
[00:16:14] Speaker C: We were the Leaders for vehicles, we were the leaders for clothes, we were the leaders for TVs, we were the leaders for audio, we were the leaders.
[00:16:21] Speaker B: For a lot of these things.
[00:16:22] Speaker C: And then it changed.
[00:16:23] Speaker B: And then all of a sudden China took over.
And that's where Trump's tariff raid started to come in. Because he's trying to take that back and he's saying, well, if you're just.
[00:16:35] Speaker C: You US Business, if you're just outsourcing.
[00:16:37] Speaker B: Your stuff over to China, we're going.
[00:16:39] Speaker C: To nail you to the wall because.
[00:16:41] Speaker B: You should be manufacturing it here and doing it here. The businesses would say it's too expensive to do it here. I had a spirited conversation with somebody online who said it's not expensive. It's not any more expensive here than it is elsewhere. This is a numb nut. You don't know what he's talking about.
We have a high regulatory thing going on.
[00:17:04] Speaker C: Regulations are expensive. So we're talking permits, we're talking just reg compliance, we're talking all these different.
[00:17:10] Speaker B: Things that ostensibly are to keep us safe.
[00:17:13] Speaker C: They're expensive, they're expensive to implement, they're.
[00:17:16] Speaker B: Expensive to research, they're expensive to maintain, they're expensive to build around.
I don't know if you heard, and this is slightly unrelated, but like Steak and Shake. Steak and Shake recently said they're gonna go back to beef tallow. Beef tallow is what McDonald's fries used to be made from when they were actually good.
And you may not know the history behind why we went away from beef tallow.
[00:17:37] Speaker C: We went away from beef tallow largely.
[00:17:39] Speaker B: Because of two things. A, the whole, the whole nation started going down this health road. And then the Super Size Me idiot.
[00:17:50] Speaker C: Who misrepresented the dangers of fast food, but he was eating to excess.
[00:17:55] Speaker B: That's why it's misrepresented.
[00:17:57] Speaker C: The health craze rushed towards seeded oils, right?
[00:18:01] Speaker B: So vegetable oils, peanut oils, you know.
[00:18:04] Speaker C: All these sunflower oils, all these oils were presented as being healthier than lard.
[00:18:11] Speaker B: Crisco butter, et cetera, and fat. So you think of lean beefs and all these fat was vilified and we got to this world where we were against things that tasted good. So then the taste of things dramatically changes.
[00:18:28] Speaker C: Did you know?
[00:18:29] Speaker B: And the price of food skyrockets in order to do this. Did you, Some of you may remember.
[00:18:35] Speaker C: Big Mac used to be 2 for 5.
[00:18:36] Speaker B: It actually was cheaper than that. But there was a time, a long time, it was two for five for Big Macs.
And then it got to a point where that Bad boy is four bucks for a big. And then the patty of a Big.
[00:18:50] Speaker C: Mac used to be the size of.
[00:18:52] Speaker B: The quarter pounder, you know, the double quarter Pounder. It's all a scam.
But everything else around that, the regulatory climate increased the cost above and beyond the price of food. And so what people noticed is that, geez, the price of food just skyrockets. So then the price to prep food skyrockets. There, there were places where you got an extra charge for the heat that.
[00:19:16] Speaker C: They used on their oven.
[00:19:19] Speaker B: So when you went to Papa Murphy's, and if you don't know what Papa Murphy's is, Papa Murphy's is a pizza place. But they don't bake it. They just. They prep it, wrap it, and give it to you. They give you basically the materials, you take it home and you make it yourself.
[00:19:34] Speaker C: And it's slightly cheaper than if you.
[00:19:36] Speaker B: Went to, you know, Papa John's or something because they're passing the charge for the heat because the heat has regs around it.
[00:19:45] Speaker C: And then the utility bills and everything else.
[00:19:47] Speaker B: It's a.
[00:19:47] Speaker C: It's a crazy amount of layers of charges that are imposed upon you that.
[00:19:52] Speaker B: You don't know about.
So this China deep seat, everything else. And the reason that the economy is so sensitive to it is the idea that, okay, this AI is going to.
[00:20:05] Speaker C: Be a game changer for the United.
[00:20:06] Speaker B: States and allow us to stand out. And then we can sell the technology.
[00:20:10] Speaker C: To other countries, including China, and make crap, tons of money off that.
[00:20:15] Speaker B: But if China is able to do it for pennies on the dollar, that means they would have to, quote Mary.
[00:20:20] Speaker C: Wells, beat us to the punch.
[00:20:22] Speaker B: And then they're going to get that.
[00:20:23] Speaker C: Money because they can pad major profit.
[00:20:25] Speaker B: To get the technology on the dirt.
[00:20:26] Speaker C: Cheap while we're spending the major money.
[00:20:28] Speaker B: And then because of Trump's tariffs, China's not going to want to broker a deal with us. That's what's causing the panic. Well, we should be ashamed that we're.
[00:20:37] Speaker C: So fickle about China doing that, instead.
[00:20:40] Speaker B: Of us just being smarter about it, instead of going YOLO into AI. It didn't mean that we should not have invested in AI.
[00:20:47] Speaker C: I'm talking about going YOLO into AI as a technology. We should have tiptoed into it and.
[00:20:54] Speaker B: Get the hit the ground running when we're ready.
[00:20:56] Speaker C: The Deep Seek AI.
[00:20:58] Speaker B: Just to be clear, we're not talking anything spectacular here. If you have Siri on your iPhone or the, you know, the Google Assist or any of these other technologies, the.
[00:21:08] Speaker C: Deep Seek is roughly about as advanced as Siri it's not we're not talking.
[00:21:12] Speaker B: Anything major it has a little bit more knowledge baked into it but by.
[00:21:16] Speaker C: And large it's about advanced as Siri the ChatGPT and all that are a.
[00:21:20] Speaker B: Little bit more robust and what they can return which is why they take so much more resources so it's not even apples to apples in the comparison I'm suggesting though that cryptocurrency resonating with.
[00:21:31] Speaker C: It so strongly is a fallacy in the business that I'm disappointed to see.
[00:21:36] Speaker B: And I think we'll recover but I I want you to understand that these disruptions are secondary to the main and yet to watch out for them and.
[00:21:44] Speaker C: If you yolo into something gambling this.
[00:21:46] Speaker B: Is the risk that they're going to crap it doesn't mean you get out of it but maybe you do but these are things that are going to continue happening because we have a fickle.
[00:21:54] Speaker C: Economy and we've tied it all together.
[00:21:55] Speaker B: Unfortunately these are the breaks folks.
