[00:00:01] Welcome to Crypto Talk Radio, the podcast for everyday investors like you. Visit us on the
[email protected] and now here's your host, Leister.
[00:00:13] Thank you for that Bailey and welcome everybody out there on Crypto Talk radio.
[email protected] crypto is no longer quiet. Now it's making noise people don't want to hear. Unfortunately, I don't have any better news or anything to make you feel better. I wish I did, but I don't because this has got to be a streak. It's got to be a record for how long the price has sustained in that same range we saw that we thought was an amazing range back in 2021. The Wall Wall was the crypto period had prices roughly around this range, but at that time they were at all time highs. People speculated and you've heard it on various youtubers I'm sure about million dollar bitcoin, etc. Time will tell but right now things are not looking good. Today's episode is going to focus on ETFs. Mostly ETFs. Disclaimer I do have ETFs, that's why I can talk about it intelligibly.
[00:01:13] Coinmarketcap.com let's zoom out to the month chart for Bitcoin so we can talk about some of these prices that are pissing people off.
[00:01:21] Bitcoin currently hovering shy of the $64,000 mark with what appears to be a downward trend as I record this Ethereum currently hovering just shy of 2000 bucks.
[00:01:33] It seems to have a middling trend and has not yet gone down. There is some sustaining pressure mostly coming from memes price and tell. Seems like there's a lot of meme activity more than normal. There's a lot of promotional activities around meme coins and that seems to be the only thing that is keeping Ethereum from crapping more than I see it. But everything ultimately all roads begin and end with bitcoin and I think bitcoin's trajectory will tell us a lot in the future to come. So I would recommend you keep an eye on Bitcoin's price over the next few I have been focusing on the month chart and if you've heard each of my updates, pretty much we've been in the same range for quite a few months now and that's why I zoomed to the month chart. It predicts it very nicely.
[00:02:21] I know some youtubers have have adamantly sold you, DaVinci Germany being one of them, that it's just a matter of time. They've been saying that for, like, years until we're at millions of dollars. Bitcoin. That's going to go to the updates that I have, which.
[00:02:43] I've not spent significant time talking about them. But I think it's time. I think now is a good time to do it.
[00:02:49] I also have another disclaimer that I'll close the show out. But for right now, let's talk ETFs.
[00:02:55] So disclosure. I have two types of ETFs. I have the fidelity. I have the fidelity. They're both fidelity, actually.
[00:03:03] One is Ethereum, one is Bitcoin.
[00:03:07] The Ethereum one, it just kind of sits in the corner. It doesn't have the same performance that the bitcoin one did.
[00:03:15] I'm pretty sure I bought the Ethereal one first. Pretty sure that's true. I'm in it. It's arguably the best bottom I could get, and it's got nowhere near that bottom. So despite the price we see, the ETFs are largely holding steady because they have stronger investment, not just from the retail, but also from the large players. Those are where that money goes because they're more confident in it. You have protections. Consider with the ETFs, as opposed to crypto and gambling, you have protections that you lack. On the other side, many of those people, if we were doing it right, and we were not just a bunch of clowns, which it is in crypto, we were doing it right, we would promote. If we're going to tie it to any sort of finance, we would have promoted the ETF stronger than we did. We would have promoted the idea that that's where your money belongs.
[00:04:11] Instead, what we promoted, if you were there in 2021 and 2022 and half of 2023, you saw people promoting the garbage that was out there. You saw Kishu getting promoted. You saw Doge getting promoted. You, you saw Shib getting promoted. You saw Elon Baby Doge, and it gets promoted. You saw Seifu getting promoted. You saw Tatano getting promoted. You saw Libro getting promoted.
[00:04:38] You continue to see Garbage getting promoted. Left, right.
[00:04:42] And you understand none of them have succeeded. When I say succeeded, I'm saying that if you happen to gamble at the right time early and cashed out, you made your money. You're off.
[00:04:57] When I say succeeded, I'm talking about what people have stated was going to happen. Remember, Shib was at one point talked about years ago after Idiot Vitalik burned half the supply, that all of a Sudden, all we got to do is burn the rest of you, go be a millionaire. Right? That happened. There were YouTubers telling you, all you need to hold is this much ship and you're going to be a millionaire. Luna Classic. All you needed to hold is this much classic. Going to be a millionaire. Floki. When Floki went mainstream, all you got to do is hold this much. Floki beam in there. Not the case.
[00:05:34] You had to be in there in the beginning. If you were not in the beginning, you were not going to be a millionaire. That's just the way the game works when you're gambling and you understand this now, ETFs didn't play that game. ETFs had solid backing, continue to have solid backing. People that invested it because they understand the government helps protect those assets. Now it's not complete, but at least it's better than crypto where you have zero protection whatsoever.
[00:06:03] So I had bought in because I understood that if you were going to have any sort, any sort of strength of asset, it was going to come from buying into the ETFs just kind of sitting on them with no expectation of being a millionaire overnight. That was never the point.
[00:06:21] Rather it's as part of a diverse portfolio that I did the investments. I knew that they were going to sit around for a while. I had some others that I was sitting on prior to the ETFs, and I sold those.
[00:06:32] I sold part of the ETF simply because it was in profit and I needed it for something else where I didn't want to take away from other liquidity.
[00:06:41] But other than that, I did keep a base. I kept a foundational amount in both because I expected if there was good. Like take Bitcoin for example. Let's assume Bitcoin 10x's from my ETF. That's a lot of freaking money just because of how many shares I've got. And I expected that a 10x is my. It's likely, certainly likely. I just wasn't sold on this whole million dollar on the top. But if it does great, that's even more. But it's in safe assets, it's in assets that cannot be taken. But I don't know if you watched what was going on with the whole cold wallet. I did a brief update about that one and the fact that people are getting their Bitcoin took from the cold wallet because they didn't understand exactly how that worked. There was a person on Reddit, he told a story where he said he took years to save up and he finally got to a whole bitcoin, only to have a jacked jack boo from his cold wallet due to that breach.
[00:07:35] Could your stuff be stolen from etf? Sure, but it's highly unlikely.
[00:07:39] And I understood that and that's why I said, let me go this route, let me do this, let me see how this works. Because it feels like it's going to be a more solid solution for what it is that I'm doing. I don't regret it. I am encouraging anybody listening to me here@CryptoTalk FM. If you've not looked into ETFs, I strongly recommend you do again, not to replace anything else that you got going on. Rather, as part of a diverse portfolio, you really can't go wrong with it, frankly. There's really no high risk of it. There's obviously risk of impermanent loss, but not to the degree of gambling cryptocurrency. What you do is what you do. I'm simply recommending as part of a diverse portfolio, consider ETFs as one of those asset classes that you invest in with the understanding you're not going to be made a millionaire overnight.
[00:08:30] Now, let's talk about the Bitcoin etf. The Bitcoin ETF has, had you seen news articles probably about outflows, and the outflows have probably freaked you out. You've also seen about strategy doing another dump of its bitcoin store. And if you've noticed the price is not significantly budged. What's arguably happening with no confirmation, I'm saying arguably happening, is that as people do sell, there's still, I said there's a bottom in bitcoin. I said that it's highly unlikely it goes to zero despite it being effectively worth nothing. Because you've got die hards that believe in it so fervently look it up, that they're unlikely to sell out of it. And I believe that's really what's contributing to the fact that bitcoin's price is holding steady. And I believe that's contributing to the theories that DaVinci Germany is putting out about its price movement in the future. I can't say it is or isn't. I'm saying from what I see, I'm not sold on a million dollar bitcoin per se.
[00:09:28] But if I'm right, which is that as people sell, there are people that are effectively buying on the discounts and they're buying because they understand or believe that it's going to go up into the positive, it means when you see the articles telling you about outflows on the ETF side, that's going to result if we're right, one of two ways. It's going to be a crunch similar to what we saw with silver, where there's simply high enough demand and it's not there and the price just skyrockets, or the ETF shut down, which is actually what happened very recently, where you had a spot Bitcoin ETF just completely shut down, or at least announced a shutdown. You don't have very much time. That's also why I'm sharing it. But Hashdex, which had a. What's called a DeFi Bitcoin ETF, is going to stop the trading, the active trading of its Bitcoin ETF, effective the 17th, so six days from when I record this liquidation. So they're going to liquidate the assets allegedly paid out by the end of the month, in this case August 28th.
[00:10:30] This was not taken very well, positive, but people started dumping out. So that made it worse is the fact that it's going to stop trading. So that's activity that's lost. And then people started dumping out of it, exiting their positions. So then that creates a constraint it can create, creates a gap. Now, some of those will flow back into other of the ETFs that are out there, the Bitcoin ETFs that are out there. The problem is that there's only so many places to go because unfortunately, all of the various ETFs, except one, I believe, had major outflows. So even if they did jump to another one, it wasn't enough to stop the bleeding. Blackrocks in particular had a significant amount of outflows. I say significant, but in the broad spectrum of things where you see, like Trump, Trump's media, he holds a bag, or his company, I should clarify, holds a bag of Bitcoin. They have millions and millions of dollars of worth of bitcoin, plus they have some other assets that they got in stock. I think they bought some Kronos, I don't know why.
[00:11:31] And they're at major losses after getting major gains off of the meme coin.
[00:11:37] So here, these are less than 100 million PER. So we're not talking significant per. And overall it's actually a net positive because you had some that had a couple of inflows, some that did not have any in or out, and then it kind of offset what was going out. It just happened to be that the largest of the funds were the ones that experienced the largest outflows. That's simply a symptom of the fact that they are the largest sized ETFs, not necessarily that there's a problem inherent with any one of them. I said before, fidelity is one that I. Well, I have both on fidelity of the ETF and the bitcoin. I have the fidelity bitcoin one and it's still up, it's still in profit because it depends on when I bought it. There are people that yolo into whatever crypto ETFs, whatever way after the fact. So let's say they bought in at $50 a share. They're hurting right now. They're pissed, they're sad, they're frustrated because they were sold a narrative by some YouTuber that told him it was going to go to $1,000 a share and none of that happened. But if you had bought in, you know what, it was like 20 bucks a share or something, you're sitting pretty good. And you're not necessarily worried about it because you don't think it'll go anywhere near that low.
[00:12:49] It could, but you don't think that it will. My summary thought on this whole fiasco around ETFs simply is to say a lot of the disruption on the ETF side is natural and frankly healthy because we don't want people necessarily sitting on the bitcoin. We also don't want anybody who's spinning up an ETF that's not going to be in it for the long haul. Like I suspect that fidelity and I could be wrong, but I suspect fidelity is in it for the long haul. I don't think they're going anywhere the way that they started. And the strength of their assets performance tells me that they're likely going to go all in on this at least in the next five years, if, if not more.
[00:13:28] And time will tell exactly what it results in. But I'm reasonably confident that the ETFs, for the ones that are going to stick it out, they're going to come out the best, not the raw crypto at all.
[00:13:41] I think precious metals will come out stronger. I did get a little bit more. I haven't bought anywhere near what I used to because the prices were too inflated. And if you go back a couple of months, I did warn I thought that gold was grossly inflated. I felt it had some opportunity to go down quite a bit because it felt like it was just running too dang hot.
[00:14:02] Silver did settle back down to a groove. It's starting to grow just a little bit. Now palladiums way down. I told you palladium was. I felt overpriced. I felt platinum was a little overpriced. Now you're starting to see some discounts. I was actually able to get some silver at straight spot, as in. No, there was no margin over top of. It was shocking. I never saw such a thing. And even copper, the bars went way the frick down, which is a great thing. Copper's climbing back up again. But just for a hot minute you were able to get the thing and it was like 50% down from what it is. You can still get good prices on copper. I'm not dismissing what's doing. I'm saying that at the time it was nuts. Just, just how far even copper had gone, dropped, and then it started climbing back up again.
[00:14:51] Suffice to say precious metals, that's, you know, that's where liquidity is going to flow. When you have these disruptions, when you have all these things happening to the other asset classes. Precious metals is one of those targets, but it's not as strong of a target as it was before because of the theory that some of this is going to flow into these asset classes such as ETFs and bonds.
[00:15:14] Because this is where people are going to kind of sit it out because they think that there's going to be a dry spell and the dry spell is going to impact their assets value. So they don't want to sit on something that's illiquid, look it up. So if they think, if people think they're not going to be able to get the money out of it quickly, they're less likely to invest in those classes in the short term is what I'm getting at. That means that these, that's not easy to turn back into regular fiat are less likely to get most of the liquidity flowing towards them. This is all my stance and how I believe it. And some people are going to disbelieve and that's great. I don't care what they think. I share my thoughts. I want you to measure what I say against what they say. And on the other side we'll see who was right and who's wrong.
[00:16:10] Sam.
